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The Top Five: Breaking down the Phoenix playoff race

Five thoughts after Sunday’s NASCAR playoff race at ISM Raceway…

1.  Big stage is set

After all the crazy twists of these playoffs, NASCAR ended up with the best four drivers of the season going for the championship.

There are no flukes here. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. have the best average finishes of anyone in the Cup Series this season (in that order). In the traditional/non-playoff point standings, which are still kept by racing-reference.info, those four drivers are also tops in season-long points.

It’s a stout group, and you could make a case for any of them winning the title.

“This is the closest four that have been in our sport in a long time,” Busch said.

There are no newcomers among them, either.  Each contender has been in the final four at least twice — even though this is only the fifth year of its existence. Logano is the least experienced of the contenders — and yet this is his 10th season.

“Three of us have won in the format and all four of us have lost in the format,” Busch said. “Overall, it just comes back to a lot of things having to go your way.”

So what’s going to happen at Homestead? Well, it would be a surprise if the drivers didn’t run 1-2-3-4 for much of the race, and maybe even finish that way.

Harvick though, remains the favorite. It’s a 1.5-mile track and he’s consistently been the fastest off the truck all year. Strange things can happen, as we saw at Phoenix, but the Fords are still better than the Toyotas on intermediate tracks.

So that said, my prediction for the finishing order of this year’s final four is: Harvick-Logano-Busch-Truex.

2. Playoff races raise the game

It’s OK to have a love/hate relationship with this playoff format. There are days when it seems far from the best way to decide an auto racing champion.

But Sunday was not one of those days. The playoff pressure absolutely elevated the Phoenix race and made it far more compelling than it may have been otherwise.

Look at how desperately Aric Almirola was driving at the end. Look at the decisions made by Kurt Busch and his team to try to preserve their points position over Harvick. The whole atmosphere and vibe of the race was dramatically enhanced by the playoffs, and it made for a highly entertaining day.

Yeah, it’s still weird to have one race at a given track decide the season-long winner. On the other hand, it gains credibility when the best drivers all advance — and the addition of playoff points have certainly helped.

“I think the format we have now is the absolutely best scenario we could have when you look at it for the entirety of the year,” Busch said.

3. Smoke’s thoughts

Tony Stewart had his hands full on Sunday. He knew it would be challenging for a team owner — that’s what happens when you have four teammates going for one spot. But he had to step into an extra role as well: Counselor.

As Kurt Busch was having a meltdown on the radio after a tough penalty took  the race lead away and cost him a lap, Stewart intervened and told Busch to take a deep breath. After the race, Stewart consoled Busch with an embrace and words of encouragement — something Busch expressed gratitude for later.

It was if the current Stewart was talking to the racer Stewart from 10 years ago as the voice of reason.

“Scary, isn’t it?” Stewart told me after the race. “Got some experience in those situations. I think that helps, at least being in that position. (Kurt is) a good guy. He’s come a long way, but he still gets in those positions where the heat of battle takes over. It’s understandable. That’s why we do what we do.

“Can’t blame him for it. You just know everybody is going to hang on every word he says, so you just try to help him out more than anything. After his penalty, he did an awesome job of locking back in. He was running the leaders down from the back. Pretty proud of him.”

Overall, Stewart was unhappy about the race unfolded. He called it “chaotic” and indicated there were too many factors affecting such a big race.

What specifically stuck out?

“The scenarios and everything around it, drivers that shouldn’t even be in the Cup Series causing cautions, stupid stuff happening,” he said.

4. Harvick’s comeback

This will probably be lost to history, but let’s take a moment to appreciate Harvick’s remarkable feat at Phoenix.

After dominating the first stage, he had a tire go flat with two laps left in the stage and limped to pit road — which was actually fortunate timing, because the stage break saved him from going more laps down.

Then he fought his way to the free pass position —  and got it — despite a damaged car. Later, his team used strategy to put him in a favorable spot to be in front of the late wreck that would have ended his playoff hopes — but instead helped him sail through on points as his competitors crashed.

Harvick downplayed it all afterward, saying it was “just another day.” He said his only thoughts were trying to get back to the pits instead of worrying about the championship.

But the survival and focus of his team to persevere through a day that could have been a heartbreaker is one to remember — especially if he ends up winning his second title next week.

5. What if?

An intriguing scenario popped up late in the race with Kyle Busch and Almirola restarting side-by-side. If Busch allowed Almirola to beat him on the restart — and potentially for the win — then it would have eliminated Harvick, who is clearly Busch’s biggest competitor for the title.

Busch said it crossed his mind, but never seriously. He wasn’t going to give up a win, even if it means Harvick would beat him next week.

“You always want to go up against the best of the best, and the strength of the season has been us three and the 22,” Busch said.

In addition, Busch said it wouldn’t have worked anyway. Had Almirola gotten by on the restart and Busch fallen in line, he predicted Brad Keselowski would have won instead.

“I don’t think the 10 was capable enough of being able to lead the race and not have somebody else pass him, know what I mean?” Busch said. “That would have been dumb.”

Crew chief Adam Stevens,  though, seemed like he wouldn’t have been disappointed had it happened.

“It wouldn’t have upset me if it did happen, but we weren’t going to do anything to make it happen,” Stevens said.

I’m not at all saying Busch should have done it — no real racer would give up a win, and it also would have been a huge scandal for not letting the race play out — but it’s an interesting scenario that only pops up in NASCAR’s unique playoff format.

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12 Questions with Ryan Newman

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The 12 Questions interview series continues with Phoenix race winner Ryan Newman, who spoke with me earlier this month at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

1. How much of your success is based on natural ability and how much has come from working at it?

50-50. I guess you want to me to elaborate.

If you don’t mind.

I think you have to have a natural ability, otherwise you just aren’t ever going to get it. It’s no different than any other sport or any other pastime or any other job. But at the same time, in order to be as good as other people, you have to work at it. And that all depends on how gifted you are from the beginning. So the most gifted don’t have to work at it as much.

2. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards have all retired in the last couple years —

Carl didn’t retire. He has not said the ‘R’ word.

He’s gone for now.

He quit.

He quit.

When you quit, you stop. Which means you might come back. So he hasn’t retired.

So let me rephrase this. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards are not here —

Correct. Even though I just saw Jeff in the bus lot.

OK, let me try this again. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards might be here, but —

They’re not driving. They aren’t driving this weekend.

They might be driving a rental car though, to you use your logic.

They aren’t driving a race car. They aren’t competing on the racetrack this weekend.

OK, that’s fair. What’s your pitch for fans of theirs to become fans of yours?

There is no pitch. You either enjoy racing and you like to watch a good race and you pull for the winner, or you don’t. That’s how Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart and Carl gained their fans. It wasn’t because they just combed their hair a certain way. Really, it’s not. It’s about who you are and how you win.

3. What is the hardest part of your job away from the racetrack?

It’s a loaded question, because the “hardest” can be the hardest physically or the hardest mentally. To me, it’s more about all the other things that go along with it. As much as I looked forward to signing my first autographs when I started at Penske, it’s not that I hate it now, it’s just that I dislike it. It’s just too redundant; I don’t like redundancy. So I’d say probably redundancy in what I do is probably the thing I dislike the most.

4. A fan spots you eating dinner in a nice restaurant. Should they come over for an autograph or no?

After I’m done eating, absolutely. That’s what it’s all about. But I enjoy my meal just like they do and don’t want to be interrupted.

So if you have food on your plate, come back a little later.

Right, yeah. There’s a lot of people that get it and there’s a lot of people that don’t get it. And the ones that get it, we appreciate.

5. What’s a story in NASCAR that doesn’t get enough coverage?

I would have to say the depth of what it takes to put on a race. So you talk about the cars, you talk about the spoilers, you talk about the aero package or the restrictor plate or whatever else, but you don’t talk about everything that goes into making it happen — every facet of our shop, the people, what goes into it. It’s more than just a race car showing up on a hauler and 15 guys making it happen. I think that depth is always lost and will probably be always lost to the extent that it needs to be detailed.

6. Who is the last driver you texted?

I think it was Stewart.

Does he still count as a driver? You might dispute that logic.

He’s still a driver. He drives.

He’s not a NASCAR race car driver.

No, you said driver. You didn’t say (NASCAR).

See, right there — Monday. (Newman shows a racing cartoon they texted. It’s a picture of a small desert island and one of the guys has a sprint car. The caption says, “Almost every other guy I know would have built a boat.”)

7. Do you consider race car drivers to be entertainers?

Yeah. I think the byproduct of what we do is entertainment; therefore, we are entertainers. I don’t think it’s our intention to go out and be an entertainer.

I like your logical approach to these answers. You just break it down very precisely.

Well that’s what questions are for — logical approaches.

8. What is your middle finger policy on the racetrack?

I use it when necessary.

How often is necessary?

I’m still confused on if you get penalized for it or not. I think it has to be direct. Is that the rule now? Maybe you can clarify.

I don’t think you can get penalized for using your middle finger on the track. If you use it outside the car, I bet they might say something.

You’re still flipping it out the window, so you’re broadcasting it. If you’re flipping off the official, then…

Well, the official, yeah.

Either way, it’s still in the car. There’s a little gray area in there still. They leave it open to potential income.

So if you got some clarification on the rule, you might use it more often.

I don’t like to use it, so…but yes. I would at least like to know what it wouldn’t cost me.

9. Some drivers keep a payback list in their minds. Do you also have a list for drivers who have done you a favor on the track?

Oh yeah. I mean, that list is way shorter than the other list, but yeah. I remember watching races, when Stewart won his championship there at Homestead, it just seemed like everybody was like, “Go for it, man — it’s all you.” Not to say that was wrong, but there’s times when it definitely looks like your payment comes back to you all at once.

10. Who is the most famous person you’ve had dinner with?

I don’t know. My wife. (Laughs)

 

11. What’s something about yourself you’d like to improve?

That’s a real good question. I would have to say if I could control my own social media without getting in trouble for controlling my own social media, that would be good.

You’re looking at Traci (Hultzapple), your PR rep.

(To Traci) Right? I mean, you’d like that, but then you wouldn’t like that.

12. The last interview was with Dale Earnhardt Jr., and his question is: “Who has the most punchable face in NASCAR?”

Punchable, as in you just want to punch them in the suckhole? I think the majority — and when I say majority, I mean the fans — would say Kyle Busch.

Would you like to punch Kyle in the face?

I have no reason to punch him in the face, but I think if you just go off the majority, then he’s the one.

The next interview is with AJ Allmendinger. Do you have a question I can ask AJ?

AJ, if you could build a racetrack — either a road course or an oval — what would the ideal racetrack be in your mind?

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NASCAR should keep pushing on Xfinity driver limits

Shortly after Justin Allgaier won the Phoenix Xfinity race on Saturday, Motorsport.com’s Jim Utter turned to me in the media center and gave me crap for a tweet implying the race was good because an Xfinity driver won.

Utter observed the race was good either way — and it still would have been a good race even if a Cup driver like Ryan Blaney or Erik Jones had edged Allgaier for the win.

So would I have claimed it was a bad outcome, Utter asked, if a Cup guy won?

It’s a fair argument, but I’ll own my viewpoint: No matter what happens or how exciting the race is, if it’s a Cup guy in Xfinity victory lane, I won’t like it.

In that sense, Saturday was a good race. Allgaier hadn’t won since 2012, and he won on a day when veteran Cup drivers (five years or more of experience) were banned from participating.

And yeah, if a Cup guy won, I wouldn’t have said it was a “good” race.

A true racer would judge the racing off the action — not the participants — so I realize that exposes me a bit. But I’ve just never been able to get pumped about watching Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano moonlight in a series and suck all the oxygen out of the room. Nothing against them personally, but I just don’t find it interesting when they win a minor-league race.

After the race, I asked Allgaier if the absence of the veteran Cup guys changed the dynamic on Saturday. Yes and no, he said.

On one hand, he said, the typically strong cars driven by those Cup stars — like from Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing — were still in the race with excellent drivers. They weren’t easy to beat, and it was a “dogfight,” Allgaier said.

On the other hand…

“Kyle is really good here, so one would have to think he’d be up front battling it out,” Allgaier said.

And he was nowhere to be found. So was that a good thing?

“I think it certainly changes the way the race looks,” winning team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. said. “When Kyle in particular is in these races, he’s got such a great chance to win. The race from second on back is still probably as exciting, but he usually doesn’t make much of a race out of it. When he’s in the field, he doesn’t hardly get challenged by a lot of the teams.”

Busch fans complain the media just doesn’t like it when Busch wins, as if people are OK with any other Cup driver. Personally, I don’t feel it’s an Anybody But Kyle situation when it comes to who I want to see in victory lane.

But Utter was right to poke holes in my argument that it’s all Cup guys who I have an issue with, because it’s certainly a different feeling when a Suarez or Jones or Blaney wins vs. a Busch or Keselowski or Logano. I admit that.

Still, my thoughts haven’t changed since I used this as the topic for my very first NASCAR column in 2004: Cup drivers should not be allowed to race in the Busch/Nationwide/Xfinity Series.

There’s zero value to anyone but those teams who sell sponsorship around it; everyone else loses.

Invest in Xfinity by allowing the lower series drivers to build their own storylines and rivalries — “Names Are Made Here,” after all — and let the series have a completely unique identity.

NASCAR has been taking baby steps over the years — Cup drivers can’t run for points (2011), Cup drivers can’t race at Homestead (2016), veteran Cup drivers limited to 10 races (2017), etc. — but it can’t stop now.

But my fear is after seeing a positive result like Saturday, officials will say, “OK, we’ve fixed it and we don’t need to go any further.”

It could have easily been a Cup driver in victory lane, though, so it’s still just putting Band-Aids on a wounded series that needs stitches.

Ban Cup drivers from Xfinity races — period — and the series will be much better off.

 

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DraftKings NASCAR picks for Phoenix spring race

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last week’s results: Played the $0 entry Daily Free Contest with $250 payout (because of Nevada gambling restrictions) and finished around 10,600th out of 20,300. Won $0.

Season results: $1 wagered, $0 won in three contests.

This week’s contest: For the second straight week, I’m in a state that only allows me to play a free DraftKings contest. Lame. So I’m in the $0 entry Daily Free Contest ($250 payout) again.

This week’s picks:

— Kevin Harvick ($11,100). I was really looking for ANY excuse to stay away from him since you know a gazillion people will have him on their team, but he starts 23rd. I want that position differential when he finishes in the top five (which he could do even on a non-dominant day).

— Kyle Busch ($10,100). Being fastest in 10-lap average over the course of a race like Phoenix — which often has long, green-flag runs — is an attractive proposition. He could be the dominator.

— Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500). Surprisingly affordable for a potential race winner. I know he starts too high (third), but damn — this team owned the fall race with Alex Bowman, was fastest in the January test and now looks good again this weekend. I’ll take that chance.

— Erik Jones ($7,500). I’m going to stay on the Erik Jones train until his price goes up. He’s one of the best deals out there lately, even though he starts a little high (eighth) for my liking.

— Jamie McMurray ($7,400). I’d love to pick Kyle Larson as well, but he’s too expensive for my lineup. The Chip Ganassi Racing cars have had a great start to the season, and although McMurray starts fifth, he has the ninth-best driver rating in the spring race over the last three years. He was also 10th-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice.

— Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300). Hoo boy. This is a big risk. But I had to go cheap to make this lineup work. I’m essentially hoping he can get a top-25 out of this, and then give me the points differential from moving up from 30th. We’ll see.

Remaining salary: $100.

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The privilege of covering a Phoenix race

I’ve been coming to Phoenix Raceway for 12 years now, and there’s something about this place that feels special for me.

That’s not sarcasm, although I could see why people would think that — since I’m always ripping on the awful facilities like the media center (they’re fixing it!).

But in all seriousness, Phoenix always makes me stop and reflect. Why? Check out this list of personal firsts:

— It was my first racing assignment for the Inland Valley (Calif.) Daily Bulletin in Nov. 2005. My main job for the newspaper was high school sports, but sports editor Louis Brewster generously allowed me to cover the Phoenix race because he knew how badly I wanted to go.

During that first weekend, Brewster assigned me a story on our local driver David Gilliland, who was in his second career Busch Series race. It wasn’t much of a story at the time (he start-and-parked), but it was Gilliland’s first race with car owner Clay Andrews — a pairing which would pull off the famous Kentucky upset a year later.

— It was my first on-the-road assignment for NASCAR Scene magazine in April 2007. I’d left the Daily Bulletin for my dream job in early ’07, and Phoenix was my first race after a few weeks in the office. I was absolutely on top of the world. Getting paid to travel full-time to NASCAR races? Are you kidding?

Plus, Scene was rolling in cash at the time (it was still the glory days of print advertising) and they paid for FIVE Scene writers to fly out a day early so we could “adjust to the time zone.” Gotta be fresh for the weekend and all that, right?

So we had two days to lounge by the pool at a fancy hotel and eat good food on someone else’s dime. Plus, all of the other writers were guys I practically idolized as a subscriber of the magazine, so I didn’t think it could get much better than that. I wore my Scene polo shirt to the track with pride and beamed when I saw crew members reading it in the garage.

— It was the first race I ever live-tweeted in April 2009! Scene had each of us create Twitter accounts in March of that year, but they wouldn’t let us start tweeting until a sponsored deal with Sprint kicked in. The first race was Phoenix, and we had to tweet #SprintRacing after every tweet. Anyway, I sat up in the press box and tweeted, connecting with some of you for the first time. Much has changed in the time since (or not).

— This was the first place I traveled for JeffGluck.com. Thanks to your early surge of pledges, I had enough money to go cover testing in January. That was one of the best feelings I’ve ever had, because I was only there because you wanted me to be there.

Anyway, perhaps in part of all these firsts, I always feel like it’s a privilege to come out to Phoenix. If you’re a NASCAR beat writer who makes it out this far west, you’re fortunate to either work for a large outlet with a travel budget or you have the resources to make it on your own.

There aren’t a lot of us left. The only traveling beat writers here this week are from ESPN.com, FOXSports.com, Motorsport.com, NASCAR.com, NASCAR Wire Service, KickinTheTires.net and Catchfence.com. And me.

So I’m pretty happy to be here. It’s another special weekend, and I don’t take it for granted.

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And now for Kyle Busch’s side of the Las Vegas fight

Joey Logano twice presented his side of the Las Vegas fight story on Friday.

After getting back on track at Phoenix Raceway and qualifying ninth, it was Kyle Busch’s turn.

Busch spoke to a pair of reporters (including me) on pit road after his qualifying lap, telling us why he punched Logano last week and adding he still didn’t buy Logano’s explanation.

When Busch tried to make a move down the backstretch and avoid a slowing Brad Keselowski on the last lap, he made contact with Logano. He felt Logano then took revenge right away.

“It was instantaneous,” Busch said. “I made a move down the backstretch that cut Joey off — and I had to; I wasn’t just going to roll out of the gas and fall in behind Brad and probably lose spots to more guys behind me. So I made a bold move — I was two-thirds of my way past Logano, and I figured I can wedge my way through there a little bit.

“And I did, and it was instantaneous retaliation. That’s what I thought and that’s kind of what I still think.”

Logano presented Busch with data during their meeting with NASCAR that he felt proved the incident was unintentional, but Busch didn’t believe it.

“No,” Busch said after being asked whether the data changed his mind. “Nope.”

Busch said he’s raced Logano well over the years and “didn’t expect that move from Joey.” He thought the two would be able to showcase their talent in a good, side-by-side finish and then say something like, “Ah, he got me this time. Damn.”

But Logano “chose a different route,” Busch said.

“And if it was Brad, I would have expected that route to be chosen, you know what I mean?” he added. “So that’s how I interpret that.”

Busch also expressed frustration over “continuing to get wrecked by the Penske guys.” You’ll recall Logano has also been in recent high-profile wrecks with Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth.

As for the lack of NASCAR penalty for punching Logano on pit road?

“There could have been different circumstances that played out that wouldn’t have allowed me to be here, and that’s why I said what I said earlier — that everything is great,” Busch said. “Life is good.”

Oh, and one more thing: Did Busch’s punch connect or not?

Busch’s public relations representative cut off the question, and the driver didn’t answer — but Busch grinned and shook his hand like it hurt.