Heading into the last episode of Survivor Kaoh Rong, the finale seems to be the most unpredictable in years. There’s no clear favorite — as there has been many times before — and on the surface, it feels like any one of the four remaining Survivors could win it.
But digging a little deeper and thinking about the scenarios for the finale, I’m not sure that’s entirely true. Let’s take a look:
— It seems as though the season is heading for a final two, NOT a final three. There are four people left for a two-hour finale, which would seem to mean there are multiple tribal councils. And as the excellent Survivor Know-It-Alls podcast has pointed out for weeks, the first Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty format also had a final two. But it doesn’t seem like any of the players realize this! They’re all planning for a final three. So that could be a big twist in strategy.
— Tai can’t win. I really don’t see a scenario where Tai wins this game. He’s made too many enemies by flip-flopping and bouncing from alliance to alliance, and I just don’t see how the jury would reward him with $1 million for it. And that’s even if he gets to the finals. Cydney has already made it clear she considers him a major threat (she said, “I ain’t going to the finals with no damn Tai” or something along those lines a few episodes ago), so I think it would be hard for him to even reach the final two.
— Aubry is in big trouble. It’s reasonable to say Aubry has played the best game this season. She’s been a strategic thinker, made an unbelievable move to sway Tai away from Scot and Jason and seemed to steer most of the big decisions for her alliance. But with the loss of Joe, who was a 100% vote with her until the end, she’s very exposed. The biggest problem is Michele will not turn on Cydney in my opinion. And Cydney certainly is warily eyeing Aubry and Tai. So unless Aubry wins immunity, I can’t see her making it to the final two (if she does, she’ll win).
— This is setting up for a Michele/Cydney final. Neither of them like Tai enough, so they’ll probably figure out a way to get rid of him (remember, he can’t use his idol anymore). Then Aubry is the odd person out; Cydney will feel she has a better chance against Michelle. But if that’s the case, I could see a scenario where Michele wins. Has she played the best game? No, probably not. When you look at the jury, though…
- Jason and Scot are still pissed at Cydney for turning on their alliance. They’re not going to give her $1 million. Nick and Julia like Michele from when they were working together. That’s four votes for Michele right there!
- Aubry would probably vote for Cydney, as would Joe. So that’s two for Cydney.
- I’m not sure where Tai, Debbie and Neal would fall, to be honest. But if it’s 4-2 going into that scenario, then Cydney would need all three of their votes to win 5-4. If just ONE of those people votes for Michele, she wins Survivor.
Maybe my view is colored by Stephen Fischbach’s insistence for the last couple months on the RHAP podcast that Michele is getting the legendary “winner’s edit.” He has claimed it’s her for a long time. I had my doubts, but now I’m starting to believe he’s right.
But I could also see Cydney winning it. She’s played a good game. I just don’t see Aubry making it to the final two — too big of a threat — and I don’t see Tai having the votes no matter how far he makes it.
So while Michele isn’t who I want to win it, she’s who will win it.