Survivor analysis: The final seven and what Tasha should do

The Dec. 9 episode of Survivor figures to be crucial in determining who makes it to the end — and perhaps who wins it all in Cambodia.

And after last week, we can see what’s coming: Tasha’s decision will make or break several games.

If you recall, Kimmi proposed an all-women alliance in the previous episode before Joe was booted. With four women remaining and three men, this could potentially make for the final four if Tasha chooses to go that direction.

Tasha told her current alliance (voting bloc?) — Spencer and Jeremy — about the possibility, which was surprisingly straightforward and perhaps a miscalculation when it comes to strategy. She took away her own element of surprise should she choose to go that direction.

And let’s be honest: She should go with the women if she wants to win. Tasha isn’t going to beat Jeremy at final tribal council (no one is if he makes it) and probably wouldn’t beat Spencer, either.

But she would beat Kimmi, Wentworth and Abi — as well as Keith, if he somehow wasn’t picked off with the other guys.

So no matter who wins immunity in Wednesday’s episode — whatever Tasha decides will change the game. The smartest play would be to cut ties with Jeremy and Spencer before it’s too late.

Which direction will she go? The fact she came straight to that pair to tell them about Kimmi’s plan indicates she has a high degree of loyalty to them, and maybe she won’t betray them. If that’s the case, she’d just need Keith to get on board with voting out someone like Wentworth or Abi and it’d be done. Then that gives a high likelihood of either Spencer, Jeremy or both in the finals (assuming it’s a final three).

Of course, no one knows Wentworth has another hidden immunity idol — which could shake things up — and the same goes for Jeremy. But if Jeremy survives this week, the time is approaching where he’ll have to play his idol anyway (you can only play it up until the final five tribal council because you can’t use an idol to make the final three).

Tasha could still have the numbers, though, if she does it the right way with the all-women alliance. I’m not saying that would be my preferred choice, by the way — I want to see Jeremy or Spencer win at this point — but it’s the smartest thing she could do.


Thanks to Rob Has A Podcast for the inspiration on this post. I’ve discovered RHAP this season, and his Survivor Know It Alls (referenced by usual co-host Stephen Fishbach several times on the show) and exit interviews of players who were voted out are must-listens every week. I can’t believe it took me so long to start listening to it — highly recommend it if you love strategy talk and inside-the-game info.