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What If? Nine Homestead columns that never got published

My former editor at USA Today, Heather Tucker, came up with a smart idea when NASCAR began its winner-take-all championship race in 2014.

With all the craziness and unpredictability in the immediate aftermath of the race, Heather asked if I would submit four pre-written columns — one for each championship scenario — before the green flag ever waved.

That way, my editors would have some analysis to post as a placeholder while the reporters ran out to pit road and gathered material for post-race coverage.

This was a challenge, but also something I ended up looking forward to each year. It became a test of trying to anticipate what something would mean if it happened — and it was sort of fun to think about the possibilities.

Obviously, three-quarters of the columns were never published/posted because they were about events that did not occur. They are more worthless than the losing team’s Super Bowl merchandise.

But I thought you might get a kick out of scanning through them, so here they are.

2016

Carl Edwards, 2016 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – Go ahead, Carl Edwards. Flip out. After 12 full NASCAR seasons, you’re finally a Cup champion at age 37.

It’s been a long road for the Missouri native famous for backflipping off his car in celebration. A former substitute teacher who once handed out business cards to every car owner in sight at Midwest short tracks, Edwards now stands at the pinnacle of the biggest racing series in North America.

The journey was not without heartbreak along the way. Edwards had previously finished second in the championship two times, but none more notable than his 2011 battle against Tony Stewart. That year, he had the best average finish ever in the Chase – but still lost on a tiebreaker after 10 grueling weeks.

How interesting, then, that Edwards became a champion in Stewart’s final race as a NASCAR driver.

Though Edwards is no longer a young gun, he has a chance to help NASCAR bring in some new fans thanks to his camera-friendly persona and marketability. He will be a fine ambassador as champion, joking around during TV appearances and always making sure to say the right thing, representing NASCAR the best way he knows how.

The championship, which is the second in a row for Joe Gibbs Racing, also validates Edwards’ decision to leave Roush Fenway Racing after the 2014 season. It only took Edwards two seasons to win a title for Gibbs and Toyota, and Edwards finished the season with his most victories since 2008.

It will be fun to see Edwards share in the joy of his celebration with fans. He may even follow through on his promise to finally join Twitter – which he said he would do if he won the title. Edwards has always given his race trophies away, determined to let others share in his success.

The Sprint Cup, though? He might just keep that one for himself.

Joey Logano, 2016 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – Welcome to the Logano Era.

You might not realize it yet, but a new moment in NASCAR arrived Sunday with Joey Logano’s first NASCAR championship, which he clinched Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

At age 26, it will almost certainly not be Logano’s last. In fact, he’s just getting started.

Think about it: Logano likely has 15-20 more years of being competitive in NASCAR if he chooses to do so and stays healthy, and it ultimately might the Team Penske driver – not Jimmie Johnson or anyone else – who gets to eight championships first.

Yes, we’re serious.

Logano would be a good candidate to become the new face of NASCAR after the current crop of 40something drivers – Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. – say goodbye in the next five years or so. Jeff Gordon is already retired, and Sunday was Tony Stewart’s last race.

The only problem is, the fans don’t like Logano. They think he’s a spoiled and arrogant, and don’t appreciate how he’s taken on the established drivers – with aggressive, hard racing.

Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski have routinely gotten more boos than even Kyle Busch in recent years, as the Team Penske drivers both value winning above hurting anyone’s feelings. It’s paid off, as team owner Roger Penske now gets to celebrate a Cup championship along with his IndyCar title in the team’s 50 th anniversary season.

But Logano’s detractors couldn’t be more wrong about Logano as a person. Outside of the car, he’s warm and friendly, a true delight to those he encounters in daily life. Other drivers make fun of his constant squints, which are because he’s constantly smiling and laughing.

If NASCAR is able to put that side of Logano on display now that he’s a champion, the sport will be better off – especially if he continues to win. Logano won’t be a popular winner for now, but perhaps he can use this opportunity to win over some new fans.

Kyle Busch, 2016 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – Make it two in a row for No. 18.

Kyle Busch became the first driver to repeat under NASCAR’s elimination-style Chase for the Sprint Cup format, taking his second career title at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday. In doing so, he called into question the conventional wisdom this format creates unpredictable outcomes.

After all, Busch seems to know exactly what he’s doing.

Busch is now the first driver to win back-to- back titles since Jimmie Johnson won five straight from 2006-10. Who could have ever imagined that Busch would master this minefield of a Chase format after constantly coming up short in the original version?

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver used to be out of the running by November every year, but he seems to have adapted to the new format. Busch had an even better Chase this year than he did last year, putting forth consistent finishes week after week en route to his second title.

And Busch, only 31, might just be getting started. He probably still has 10 or 15 competitive years left – if he chooses – which makes him a threat to quickly become one of NASCAR’s all-time champions. Who’s to say he can’t make it three in a row next season?

NASCAR fans have seen Busch mature before their eyes. The punk who intentionally took out Ron Hornaday seems to be long gone, replaced by a more level-headed driver. He still gets angry when things don’t go his way, of course – but the meltdowns aren’t YouTube-worthy embarrassments.

Perhaps it’s fatherhood that’s mellowed Busch. Perhaps it’s the comeback from a broken leg and foot last year. Perhaps it’s just a steady progression and the influence of his wife, Samantha, and those positive forces around him.

Either way, Busch’s performance hasn’t suffered. He’s better than ever on the track, and now puts himself into an elite group of multiple championship winners.

2015

Martin Truex Jr., 2015 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – When factoring in preseason expectations, Martin Truex Jr. may have just become the most out-of-nowhere champion in NASCAR history.

If anyone claims they thought Truex would have a shot to win the Sprint Cup Series title this season, they’re lying. The Caesars Palace sports book had Truex as a 250/1 underdog at the start of the year – by comparison, Danica Patrick was 150/1 – and not one person in the 100-member industry survey known as the “Century Poll” picked Truex to win.

Even entering this weekend, the Furniture Row Racing driver was largely an afterthought in comparison to Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.

But everyone was wrong. Truex beat them all, and now he’s the 2015 NASCAR champion.

It’s been quite a journey to reach this point.

He entered the Cup Series with high expectations after back-to-back Xfinity Series titles in 2004 and 2005, only to win one race in his first seven seasons.

At Michael Waltrip Racing, he made the Chase in 2012 and won a race in 2013, setting himself up for another Chase berth. He seemingly raced his way into the show at Richmond International Raceway, but it turned out MWR manipulated the results to get him in.

He was removed from the playoff and his team crumbled in the aftermath of the scandal. Sponsor NAPA left and Truex lost his ride.

The New Jersey native landed at Furniture Row, a single-car team from Denver, last year. But there was no success to be found.

He suffered through the worst year of his career, finished 24th in the standings and looked like an absolute non-factor. At the same time, longtime girlfriend Sherry Pollex was diagnosed with ovarian cancer, and Truex struggled to balance his personal and professional life.

This year, though, there was magic to be found. Furniture Row blossomed with new crew chief Cole Pearn, and Truex opened the season with top-10 finishes in 14 of the first 15 races – including a stirring victory at Pocono Raceway in June.

A summer slump made Truex drop off the radar, but he showed signs of strength again once the Chase started. He didn’t finish worse than 15th in any of the races leading to Homestead, and that turned out to be enough to advance through each elimination round on points.

It’s also been a positive year for Pollex, who has just three more chemotherapy treatments in her battle to beat cancer. She and Truex are some of NASCAR’s most philanthropic people, and their annual Catwalk for a Cause event – featuring children with cancer – is one of the highlights of the NASCAR calendar.

Now, the couple will be able to toast to good health, a turnaround year for both – and a championship.

Kevin Harvick, 2015 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – In the end, the fastest car won. Again.

Kevin Harvick made it two straight NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships Sunday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway, capping off a season in which he typically showed up at the track as the car to beat.

Though Harvick only had three wins entering Homestead, he could have had four, six — maybe even eight more. He compiled an astonishing 12 second-place finishes prior to Homestead – the most of any driver since Bobby Allison in 1972 — while crushing his previous career highs for top-five finishes, top-10s and laps led.

It was a much more dominating season than in his first championship run, which came during his debut season at Stewart-Haas Racing. Paired with crew chief Rodney Childers, the No. 4 was the favorite entering the championship weekend — and the season itself.

But to pull off a repeat, Harvick had to be fast enough to avoid the many pitfalls that come with the Chase for the Sprint Cup. A playoff that has often turned wacky and wild took out many contenders through odd circumstances, but it somehow couldn’t prevent Harvick from winning for a second straight year.

Harvick’s Chase this time was far less smooth than his first championship year. He opened the Chase by getting crashed by Jimmie Johnson, then punching the six-time champion during a conversation in the driver motorhome lot.

The next week, he dominated at New Hampshire Motor Speedway but ran out of gas and left without comment. That left Dover International Speedway, where he again dominated and scored the victory in a must-win situation – only to be accused by competitors of intentionally damaging his car during the celebration.

At Talladega Superspeedway three weeks later, Harvick’s engine was about to blow up on a green-white-checkered restart. But just when it looked grim, Harvick triggered a multi-car crash – some drivers said intentionally – to end the race and preserve his spot in the next round.

But it still wasn’t easy. At Texas Motor Speedway, he had to drive the last 100 laps holding a broken shifter in place with one hand. That summed up his Chase overall: Managing to perform despite facing more adversity than most other drivers.

In the end, Harvick made it through to Homestead and was able to perform in a high-pressure situation yet again. The 39-year-old might be known as “The Closer,” but he should also be known as Mr. Clutch.

Jeff Gordon, 2015 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – Jeff Gordon’s mere presence as a contender in NASCAR’s championship race was a fairy tale in itself – not only for Gordon and his team, but for NASCAR and its fans.

As everyone knows, not all fairy tales have a happy ending. But this one did.

Gordon became a member of the most exclusive club in sports on Sunday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway, joining the likes of John Elway and Ray Lewis as legends who went out on top, retiring from their sport as champions.

But Gordon’s achievement on an individual level might be even more impressive. In some ways, it’s the ultimate mic drop.

Fourteen years after the “Drive for Five” began, Gordon is finally a five-time Sprint Cup Series champion. He crossed the finish line first among four Chase for the Sprint Cup drivers in NASCAR’s championship race, electrifying a sold-out crowd filled with people who traveled from all over the country to see Gordon’s last race.

Homestead was already going to be a celebration of Gordon’s career and legacy. A certain Hall of Famer and one of NASCAR’s greatest drivers ever, Gordon helped take the sport to new heights on a national level with his personality and marketability.

Now it’s a celebration of all that and more – and unlike Gordon’s career, the party isn’t going to end any time soon. This is probably the greatest feel-good moment in NASCAR since Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the 2001 Pepsi 400 at Daytona International Speedway, just months after his father was killed at the same track.

Certainly, the other drivers will be disappointed to come up short. But everyone knew how big it was to be part of Jeff Gordon’s last race. Kyle Busch repeatedly referred to Gordon as his childhood hero this week; Kevin Harvick said he was holding back from his normal head games out of respect to Gordon.

In terms of larger-than-life personality and character, Gordon might only be matched by Richard Petty — whose own final race was Gordon’s first.

As Gordon’s career wound down this season, there was debate over his greatest achievement. Most settled on a victory in the inaugural Brickyard 400, or perhaps the four titles.

But what just happened at Homestead might top them all.

“I mean, that’s life‑changing,” Gordon said Friday when asked about the mere possibility of winning the title. “I’m sure it’s been done in some sport, but I don’t think it’s ever been done in this sport.

“That’s too much for me to think about. I have no idea. It would be the best one I ever did, I can tell you that.”

Pinch yourself, NASCAR nation. Now it’s real. As it turns out, some dreams do come true.

2014

Joey Logano, 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – Joey Logano’s nickname at one time was “Sliced Bread,” as in the best thing since.

But that moniker got moldy and was eventually dropped when the first four years of his NASCAR career made him look more like a bust than a budding star.

As of Sunday night, he doesn’t need to worry about a nickname anymore. Now Logano can simply be called “champion.”

Logano’s Sprint Cup Series championship, clinched by beating three other drivers in the first-ever winner-take-all finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, marks the first of many championships for the Team Penske driver.

He’s only 24 years old – the same age Jeff Gordon was when he won his first championship – but is already in his sixth full season. Drivers often seem to get better with age and experience, peaking in their late 30s.

That should frighten Logano’s competitors, because it means he probably has two decades of racing left if he stays healthy. With that much time, and with already so much talent, Logano could become the next Jimmie Johnson.

But first, he’ll have a championship to celebrate and a brand to build. This will elevate his profile, which is currently nonexistent beyond NASCAR circles. Logano wasn’t one of last year’s 10 most popular drivers and, despite major sponsors like Shell and Coca-Cola, isn’t a recognizable name in the sports world.

That should start to change now that he’s a NASCAR champion – and happens to occupy the demographic NASCAR seeks as well. Though Logano often hears boos during driver introductions due to past clashes with veterans such as Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, he’s actually an affable happy-go-lucky kid who can usually be found with a smile on his face.

Logano’s life is about to change, though. He’ll carry the mantle of champion into a busy offseason in which he plans to marry fiancée Brittany Baca on Dec. 13 (she picked the date 12/13/14 to make it easy for him to remember).

Legendary driver Mark Martin said Logano “can be one of the greatest that ever raced in NASCAR. I’m positive. There’s no doubt in my mind.”

That was in 2005. Logano was 15.

Nine years later, the champ is just getting started.

Denny Hamlin, 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – To win his first championship, Denny Hamlin just needed to Be Like Mike.

With friend Michael Jordan on hand for support, Hamlin exorcised his personal demons from choking away the 2010 title and won his first career NASCAR title Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver, known to call his shot, repeatedly emphasized how confident he was in his car and ability at Homestead prior to Sunday’s race. But he wasn’t the favorite, since Hamlin had scored just one top-five finish in the Chase for the Sprint Cup prior to the finale.

Ultimately, Hamlin came through and delivered on a promise he made to Gibbs as a kid in 1992: He’d someday drive for JGR and win a title for the former football coach.

Thanks to Hamlin, Gibbs now has more Cup titles (four) than Super Bowl rings (three). And according to Hamlin, everyone should have seen this coming.

When NASCAR changed the Chase for the Sprint Cup format in January, Hamlin immediately decided the new rules were made for him.

He slid into a booth at his favorite restaurant , eyes poking from beneath a baseball cap, and laid out how his championship would happen. If he could survive the first two rounds, the third round – featuring some of his best tracks – would be almost a sure thing.

And then there was Homestead, which Hamlin said was perhaps his favorite track – even more than Martinsville Speedway.

Apparently, more people should have listened. That’s exactly how the championship unfolded – and now Hamlin can stop getting questions about whether he has the mental fortitude to deliver in a clutch situation.

After all, it was just four years ago when Hamlin coughed up a lead in the final race, letting the pressure get to him as Jimmie Johnson won the title instead.

This time, Hamlin was determined to relax and have fun. He told friends and family not to talk about racing but keep the conversations casual and light. He spent Saturday night at an early birthday dinner instead of locking himself in his motorhome.

The soon-to-be 34-year-old might not be done yet, either. He’s quietly been one of NASCAR’s top drivers since JGR plucked him from the Late Model ranks and then elevated him to Cup in 2006.

With a championship under his belt and the confidence to know what he can do under the new Chase format, Sunday’s championship might not be his only one.

Ryan Newman, 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion

(Note: I wrote this under the assumption that if Newman won the title, he wouldn’t do so by winning the race. I almost got burned on this one.)

HOMESTEAD, Fla. – The tortoise beat the hare.

Ryan Newman didn’t have the fastest car, the best team or the most resources this season. He didn’t have the statistics, either – no wins and just four top-five finishes entering NASCAR’s championship race.

But it was Newman, not his heavily-favored competitors, who emerged victorious Sunday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway as the 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion.

He is perhaps the most unlikely NASCAR champ ever, the result of a new system that was supposed to emphasize winning but instead produced the first winless champion in series history.

The merits of Newman’s title will be debated for years. But whether or not he was deserving in the traditional sense, Newman started the season under the same rules as everyone else – and beat them all.

Newman and his Richard Childress Racing team survived three elimination rounds — they used consistency to make it through – and then beat the faster cars of Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin straight up in the championship race.

Every other driver had the same opportunity as Newman, but he’s the one who pulled it off. In that sense, it’s not his fault that NASCAR has a winless champion; he did what it took to win the title.

But NASCAR should absolutely make a tweak to the format to ensure this situation never happens again. The best solution might be to say no winless driver can qualify for the four-driver championship race unless they’ve won at least one race by the end of the Eliminator Round.

That way, consistency can be rewarded for 35 races but it would stop short of letting a winless driver become champion.

Of course, that ship has sailed now. Newman is somehow NASCAR’s new champion, and everyone involved with the sport will have to take a closer look at how exactly this could have happened.

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Honest opinion on the Denny Hamlin/Chase Elliott incident at Phoenix

My Twitter mentions have been on fire since last night, when I dared mention there wasn’t much difference between what Denny Hamlin did at Martinsville and what Chase Elliott did at Phoenix.

Many of you are absolutely incredulous over this take, questioning my sanity/judgment and openly accusing me of somehow being a Hamlin Fanboi.

I understand why people might think the situations are different: Hamlin appeared to completely wipe out Elliott at Martinsville, while Elliott gave Hamlin a couple warning shots before running him into the Phoenix wall (some of you dispute Elliott even did that, which means we’re just not going to agree on this one).

But here’s where I’m coming from on this:

— In a format where making it to the final race is all that matters, Hamlin took away Elliott’s chance at Martinsville. It doesn’t matter all that much whether Elliott got moved up the track, got spun or got outright crashed in that situation, because the result was essentially the same — a shot at Homestead was denied. By the way, Elliott has gotten a completely free pass for doing the same thing to Brad Keselowski at Martinsville; his execution may have been better than Hamlin’s because Keselowski didn’t wreck, but the thought was the same: I’m going to move him out of the way.

—In a format where making it to the final race is all that matters, Elliott took away Hamlin’s chance at Phoenix. Hamlin didn’t wreck the moment Elliott forced him into the wall, but the contact resulted in a tire rub that was like a time bomb that exploded a few laps later. Some of you argued Hamlin should have just pitted — so it’s somehow his fault — but pitting under green in that situation would have ended Hamlin’s chances just like the wreck did. Either way, once Elliott drove Hamlin into the wall, it was Game Over for Hamlin. Elliott couldn’t have calculated what the end result would be in that situation, but his thought was the same: I’m going to move him out of the way.

I truly believe drivers don’t know what’s going to happen after they make contact — whether it’s going to cut someone’s tire or spin them or what. For example: Hamlin wasn’t trying to outright crash Elliott at Martinsville (what would he gain from that?!); he was trying to do the same thing Elliott did moments earlier to Keselowski. But the combination of Elliott getting on the brakes and Hamlin trying to move him at the same time resulted in a spin.

Again, most of you feel differently about that. We’re not going to be able to come to an agreement if so.

But no matter how you view it, I don’t know why people would want to argue Elliott didn’t get his revenge on Sunday. He totally did! Fans clamored for Elliott to do something in retaliation, and he delivered.

“A wise man once told me that he’ll race guys how they race him with a smile on his face, so that’s what I did today,” Elliott said. “I raced him how he raced me, and that’s the way I saw it.”

But now many of you are saying it was different because he didn’t straight up crash Hamlin in the moment, whereas Hamlin did that to Elliott at Martinsville.

Whaaaaat? The outcome was the same!

Hamlin denied Elliott’s chance to make Homestead three weeks ago, and Elliott got his payback when Hamlin was in position at Phoenix.

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The Top Five: Breaking down the Phoenix race

Five thoughts after Sunday’s Round 3 elimination race at Phoenix Raceway…

1. That’s why we follow NASCAR

There are times throughout these long NASCAR seasons where we might question our passion for this crazy sport. There can be infuriating decisions, ho-hum races or feelings of discouragement when politics or economic realities creep into what should be an escape from reality.

But days like Sunday? Those are the races that keep us all coming back.

The final stage at Phoenix had so many emotions and so much drama that it almost didn’t even seem real at times.

You had Chase Elliott tapping Martinsville foe Denny Hamlin and eventually putting him in the wall, which led to a cut tire that ended Hamlin’s championship race hopes (which had seemed near-certain just moments earlier).

Then there was Elliott making a bold move to the front, putting himself in position for what appeared to be both a stirring first career victory and a championship berth.

And then, after all of that, there was Matt Kenseth — in likely the second-to-last race of his career — somehow tracking Elliott down despite not having clean air and making a pass for what was probably his final career win.

At the same time, that sequence of events improbably put Brad Keselowski into the championship race despite not having the kind of weekend that normally would advance a driver out of Round 3.

So no matter which side you were on (Elliott fan? Kenseth fan? Ford fan? Somewere in between?), you likely felt some level of both elation and disappointment as waves of excitement rolled through the final laps.

That’s the kind of emotional payoff that makes spending three hours of your Sunday in front of the TV all worth it.  It’s a wacky sport at times, and there can be intense frustrations that come with it.

But when NASCAR is good, it’s really good.

2. A popular win

Obviously, an Elliott victory would have been absolutely massive for NASCAR. The stands might have about fallen down with cheers had the young driver ended up winning the race and moving to Homestead. The marketing department would have had to work overtime all week to hype up a young star going for his first title in Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last race.

But to see Kenseth win? For the sold-out Phoenix crowd, that might have been the next best thing out of the available options (Earnhardt wasn’t in contention, though he did finish 10th).

The image of Kenseth standing on top of his car, looking to the heavens and then pumping his fist like he won the championship is an image that will stay with everyone long after Kenseth’s career ends. It’s a great final shot for his Hall of Fame highlight reel someday.

It was also somewhat of a cathartic moment — not just for Kenseth fans, but longtime followers of the sport. Like Kenseth himself, many fans have felt pushed out of NASCAR as the sport completely cycles. There’s a different racing format, a different championship format, different rules and now different drivers.

So the idea of Kenseth not being able to exit with what seemed like a proper sendoff? Well, that just wasn’t very satisfying to longtime fans who have continued to stick around.

At least Earnhardt has had a full year to say goodbye and soak up the appreciation — or #Appreci88ion — from the tracks and his supporters.

Kenseth hasn’t. And though it can be argued he wouldn’t have wanted the fanfare anyway, he deserved some sort of ending that would help cushion the blow.

Sunday was it.

Those new guys who have come along and pushed drivers like Kenseth out of the sport? Well, Kenseth tracked one of them down — despite being more than double his age — and made a winning pass late in a crucial race. Some of the young drivers did end up in victory lane at Phoenix, but it was just to shake Kenseth’s hand.

So let the record show the oldest full-time Cup driver could still get it done as his career came to a close. Beating the next generation in the process had to be a pretty satisfying moment for the old guard.

3. What’s next for NASCAR

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over what will happen after Earnhardt retires next week. Whose sport will this be?

The focus has been so much on the Young Guns that everyone seems to have overlooked the likely reality: The upcoming years will be dominated by drivers who are already regular winners in the Cup Series.

It’s not Elliott or Blaney or Kyle Larson or Erik Jones who are going to fill the shoes of Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart and Earnhardt in the immediate future; they’re not winning enough races to pull that off yet.

The torch has already been passed, and all you have to do is look to three-quarters of the championship field to see where it went.

Drivers in their 30s are ready to feast. Martin Truex Jr. is 37 and could easily race for five to eight more years. Brad Keselowski (33) and Kyle Busch (32) are in the prime of their careers with perhaps a dozen years left. Denny Hamlin is still only 36.

The younger drivers will get there eventually, and certainly the glimpses of speed this season are promising.

But until they figure out how to beat the older drivers in crunch time situations, they aren’t going to be able to truly take over the sport.

4. Championship preview

If you asked me to name the three grittiest, most cutthroat racers in NASCAR, I’d say Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Keselowski. Three former champions and drivers who can capitalize on any sniff of an opportunity to win.

Well, guess what? They’re racing each other for the title and going up against a driver in Truex who has had the most speed all year long.

This is an incredible championship field, to be honest. I’m really excited and anxious to see what happens and how this plays out.

Obviously, the two Fords are going to be at a speed disadvantage to the Toyotas. It’s been a Toyota season — and particularly a Truex season on the 1.5-mile tracks.

But crazy things happen in these races (remember when the fourth-best car of the title contenders won last year?), so it’s really anybody’s race.

That said, I’m going with Busch. The primary reason is I picked him before the start of the playoffs and it would be dumb to switch picks now, but I also think his combination of speed and otherwordly talent could come in handy on a late-race restart that might decide the title.

Between the championship race itself and the final races for Earnhardt, Kenseth and perhaps Danica Patrick, Homestead is going to be a truly memorable day.

I can’t wait.

5. What about Hendrick?

Before we go, let’s put a cap on Hendrick Motorsports’ season.

First of all, Elliott is going to be just fine.

Don’t worry that he’s not closing out races yet. He will figure it out in time, and then the wins and championships will come.

These playoffs have been an incredible stretch for Elliott, and he established himself as a fan favorite during that time. He’s finished second in almost half of the playoff races, emerged as the Good Guy in the Martinsville situation (even though he moved Keselowski), was labeled the People’s Champ at Texas and got his revenge at Phoenix.

Elliott will be the Most Popular Driver after Earnhardt leaves. And really, he was the best Hendrick car all season.

And that’s why I’m not as sure about Jimmie Johnson.

There’s no question Johnson is still an elite driver. But the 48 team looked off for most of the year — Johnson has the worst average finish of his career — despite winning three times early in the season.

And when you think about it, last year wasn’t very good for the 48 team, either — until he came out of nowhere to win the title, which masked many issues.

Johnson never finished a season with fewer than 20 top-10 finishes until last year, when he had 16. This year? He has 11.

The 48 team is headed the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, Johnson is 42 years old and will be the oldest full-time driver once Kenseth and Earnhardt retire.

So if the 48 is going to get back to its winning ways, how much time does it really have before Johnson, Chad Knaus — or both — move on to the rest of their lives.

In some ways, that sets up 2018 as a defining season for the 48 team’s future.

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DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Phoenix playoff race

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Did not play in Texas due to it being blocked at the track.

Season results: $102 wagered, $104.50 won in 26 contests.

This week’s contest: Cannot play due to Arizona state law.

Phoenix picks: 

— Kyle Busch ($11,100): You need a hammer to rack up the laps led, and whoever you pick is likely going to make or break your day. I’m betting on Busch because he had the second-fastest 10-lap average in final practice — as well as the second-fastest single lap — which makes him perhaps the best of the Toyotas.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,700): He’s awfully expensive for the value, but he starts far back (20th) and seems to have a decently fast car (11th-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice).

— Jamie McMurray ($8,500): McMurray was fifth-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice, and he could move up from his 13th starting position to get a couple position differential points in the process.

— Ryan Blaney ($8,200): He doesn’t have the fastest car, but whoever wins the pole has often gotten enough laps led to make it worth picking them this season. Plus, Blaney comes at a lower price than other polesitters. If he can lead a bunch of laps early in the race, it could be an easy pick for you.

— Kasey Kahne ($7,400): He had the eighth-fastest 10-lap average in final practice and has shown decent speed throughout the weekend. He should contend for a top-10 finish, so you could pick up a few points after he starts 17th.

— Michael McDowell ($5,800): This is a pure money/position differential play. He’s cheap and might be able to improve from his 28th starting position, plus he has extra motivation racing in front of friends and family in his hometown. That’s about it, although Chris Buescher ($6,600, starts 31st) is another good candidate for that strategy.

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Dale Earnhardt Jr. celebrated Phoenix ’15 win like it was his last — and it might be

With only two races remaining in Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Cup Series career, the odds are increasing that a rain-shortened race two years ago at Phoenix International Raceway might stand as the final win of his career.

That might seem sort of weird —  Jeff Gordon’s last win was a stirring victory at Martinsville and Tony Stewart’s final victory came after he bumped Denny Hamlin out of the way at Sonoma — and doesn’t really fit into any kind of storybook ending.

But don’t worry, Junior Nation: If that was it, your driver celebrated the victory like it was his last.

“After our dry spell (three winless seasons from 2009-11), every win after that I celebrated it and thought about it being my last win,” he said Friday. “The Talladega win (in 2015), the Daytona 500 (in 2014), the July Daytona race (in 2015), Martinsville (in 2014), here — every one of them I was thinking it might be the last.”

There have been only two rain-shortened races in Phoenix history: Earnhardt’s win two years ago and Rusty Wallace’s October 1998 victory here. So Earnhardt isn’t bummed about the circumstances of what may be his last win — he’s happy about it.

“I felt lucky we were running good enough to win the race,” he said. “Greg (Ives) had done some pit strategy that cycled us into the lead at the particular point when the rain came. And I was thinking, ‘Man, that is how it’s supposed to work.’ You know, your crew chief is supposed to have that vision and, man, he had it that day.

“I was so proud of Greg and I felt lucky. It’s great to back into (a win) every once in awhile, or luck into them every once in a while. I have been on the other end of that where you felt like you should have won the race and don’t for some odd reason. So I was feeling like, ‘Heck yeah.'”

Fortunately for Earnhardt, the Phoenix win came the week before Homestead — which he typically would spend at his house in Key West. So that meant Earnhardt “partied hard” after the victory, he said.

“We had a good time that night down at Captain Tony’s (saloon in Key West),” he said with a laugh. “That is where we went.”

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Social Spotlight with Regan Smith

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Each week, I ask a member of the racing community to shed some light on their social media usage. Up this week: Regan Smith, who is running a partial schedule in the Camping World Truck Series this season.

You’ve been on Twitter for a long time. But did you ever have a MySpace page before that?

Admittedly, I did not have a MySpace page. I do still have an AOL email account, though, and I feel that thing’s gonna be valuable at some point as (AOL Instant) Messenger just went away. They’re actually going to come to me and that thing is gonna be the modern-day antique. If somebody wants that email, we can trade that as an antique.

Wait, is it not just an email address that you have but one you actually use? Do you give that out to people?

I’m slowly trying to use my me.com account more, but I can say that within the past week, I have given that address out, yes.

Oh my God. I don’t think you should have admitted that. That’s embarrassing.

I don’t hold nothing back, man! Come on, I’m not scared.

That is something I want to talk about, because I feel like earlier in your driving career, there were times where you felt like, “I can’t be this outspoken.” And I see you on social media now, you’re one of the first people to put your opinions out there. Like the Martinsville situation, you’re live-tweeting and analyzing the race, saying “This is what should happen, this is what they should do, this is what this means.” When did you start to feel more comfortable with being so opinionated in a public manner?

I don’t know when that really changed. It started changing a little bit during the (JR Motorsports) days for me. But it took until then to even remotely feel comfortable with that. And then even then, I didn’t fully understand how to be opinionated.

The one thing I couldn’t handle was the backlash when people didn’t agree with you or they got mad at you. I used the block button a lot — and I still use it a lot now — but I couldn’t absorb that very well. And I started to learn how to sort of absorb that.

Last year, after my JRM time, I started doing a lot more of the TV stuff and doing a lot more on (FS1’s) Race Hub and different shows like that. And you have to give an opinion there, and a lot of that is off the cusp. We might talk about what we’re going to say on the show before we do it, but then when you do it live on the show, it’s completely unrehearsed and basically, “This is what I’m thinking,” in the (spur) of the moment and you’re basing it off what someone else is saying and how you’re going to make your point based on that.

I like the sport, I love this sport and I care about it. It’s almost to the point where we’ve been so PC for so long — drivers, anybody down the list — that we’ve forgotten how to not be PC. It’s kind of been refreshing to not have to be PC after a long time and be able to say what I want to say and say what I’m thinking. And if I’m wrong, I’ll tell you I’m wrong. I’ll admit to it and say, “Hey, I was wrong about this.” And if I’m right, then I will make sure I tell you I was right and stuff that in your face, too. (Smiles)

So how do people in the NASCAR world get drivers to not be PC? Because you can see some of these younger guys coming up, they don’t want to say anything controversial.

You bring up a good point. So the younger guys coming up right now, they don’t want to say anything controversial, they don’t want to do anything that’s gonna shake the apple cart and cause them any trouble. We lost an entire generation already, in my eyes, because of that.

We all watched those guys (like Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon) — myself included — and we saw how to they act with sponsors and we saw how important that was and the sponsors were really driving the sport back then. And they still are right now — don’t get me wrong — but naturally we’re seeing some declining numbers. That’s an obvious thing to point out at the moment, is teams are really scrambling on how to figure out new ways to market and have more partners.

As that happened, we lost an era of drivers who said, “This is how we have to act.” Do you know how hard it is? If you’re brought up through a sport, through a business industry and this is how you’re taught to act, and then (try to) flip a switch overnight and act a different way and say, “Hey, show your personality. Hey, be yourself. Go out there and let people know how you act when the cameras are off and the mic’s not in your face and when you’re sitting with buddies from high school, just hanging out around the campfire.” Like that’s almost impossible.

So kind of tying in to this new generation, these guys have an opportunity. I think you kind of see a mix of Ryan Blaney at times, he shows his personality — and he has an absolutely incredible personality — but there are also times where he doesn’t show it and to where he’s kind of muted up a little bit and kind of just tries to be a little bit polished. Chase Elliott feels like he’s very polished in terms of a driver. And I can keep on going down the list. Bubba Wallace, he’s got a lot of personality. He shows that through social media, but even Bubba, they still have to answer to their partners and to their sponsors.

I don’t think we’re ever going to get away from drivers having to be polished to a certain extent because of the fact we have to have partners to get race cars to go around the racetrack. That’s just the fact of what we do. But what I would love to see happen, and I think Monster in my opinion has really helped us out, is kind of letting these guys open back up just a little bit. Kurt Busch, I mean he says what he’s thinking. Dale Jr. — given he’s retiring this year, and that might be the best thing that’s ever happened, because he’s just letting it go. That’s what we need, and he’s in a different situation, he can get away with that more than other guys.

But I’m concerned that we need to get those guys to show off their personalities so we can learn the personalities. In order to do that, we can’t be handcuffed by the partners that are on the race cars. The partners on the race cars have to buy into it and have to allow it to happen.

Obviously that’s probably one of the biggest reasons why these guys don’t speak out, is because of the sponsor element — they’re afraid to piss off their sponsors, lose their sponsors. But you touched on something else that I think: They don’t like the backlash, when fans get mad at them, fans boo them or disagree with them, yell at them on social media. You mentioned earlier that you’ve learned how to absorb some of that criticism better. So how do you do that? What’s your secret aside from just blocking people?

I think I probably blocked most of them that say anything bad so I don’t see it anymore. (Laughs) All the ones that are left just agree with me.

In all seriousness, since I’m not driving anymore — well, I shouldn’t say not driving, but I’m not driving full time in anything currently — it’s easier to accept (the Twitter arguments). Some of the stuff’s nasty. It’s just pure nastiness out there. You’ve gotta understand that on social media.

The ones I like are the ones that give an opinion, they’re not nasty about it, and they can put me in my place. I’m fine with that, or I can fire back. Those are the ones that I enjoy, so I’ve kind of learned to read those ones and give those ones credit. And if I’m gonna say something back to somebody, say something back to somebody that’s doing it in a way that I would do it, and that’s respectfully.

Outside of that, I think it just comes with time and maybe understanding the social media side of things. I mean, everybody within this business for the most part wants to be liked by not only their peers, but other people on the outside, the people watching, the fans, the folks that are buying the tickets to come see us do what we do. So you’ve got to be conscious of that and I guess everybody just at certain stages in their career finds different ways to handle it. My tolerance has gone up for it, and who knows? I might go unblock some people after this and really see what happens.

So it sounds like Twitter and Instagram are you main forms of social media. Do you use any other forms?

Well I’ve got my Twitter linked to my Facebook, as is my Instagram. I’m liking Instagram right now. I’m really into that, but the problem for me is that I don’t have as many people on Instagram. Instagram is more putting pictures out there and videos, and I haven’t quite figured out the videos aspect of it yet, how to make them look good. I always feel like I look cheesy and corny when I do them. That’s just human instinct, where you’re like, “That’s just cheesy and corny” and then I’ll watch somebody that’s really good at it. Like Lewis Hamilton — I think is one of the best of it, like, “Wow, he just looks cool at everything he’s doing.” Which he probably is just cool at everything he’s doing. That’s just his personality.

But I really enjoy Instagram. And Twitter’s always gonna be there — well, five years from now it might not be there. But Twitter for me is the quickest one to just pop off something and say it, just get it out there right away. Those are really the only ones I mess with. I don’t even look at the Facebook. I don’t have a personal Facebook account, believe it or not. I literally don’t have one other than the one that’s linked to my racing thing.

So Snapchat’s not a thing for you?

I’ve tried it and I know that the kids now, they keep saying, “Oh you’re on Twitter? Nobody gets on Twitter anymore. Everybody uses Instagram and Snapchat.” Well, I just don’t get Snapchat. I have tried, I have used it some, and I know everybody says how great it is. I don’t get it.

What don’t you get about it?

I just don’t get what’s so good about something that’s there and then it’s gone. It’s hard enough for me to look at my phone and remember to video something that I think is really cool. And it’s even harder if I’m going to video one quick snip and send it to one person or two people or pick and choose who I’m gonna send it to or send it out to everybody. Like it’s a lot of work almost, and I guess to Instagram’s credit, the one thing I like about that is, it’s just a little more natural for me.

You have two young kids and eventually they’re going to grow up in a social media age. Have you thought at all about how you’re going to handle your kids being on social media eventually?

I’m gonna build lead walls in my house that block everything out and therefore if they get on the Internet, I’m gonna dictate it. I’m gonna be the dictator of my house, and that’s how it’s just gonna have to be. (Laughs)

I mean, I joke about that. You’re not gonna avoid that. Kids are going grow up and watch computers. My wife’s brothers are younger than me — like 10, 12 years younger than me — and they grew up more in that computer era moreso than me. They spend a lot of time on their computers, they both work in the computer industry, and the things that they’re saying, the conversations that I have with them, I can’t even being to understand. And I’m afraid that it’s going to be the same with my kids, that the things they’re gonna see and know and understand, I’m not going to have a way to fully comprehend that and it’s not going to make sense to me necessarily.

With that said, I’ll pay attention to what they’re doing and pay attention to the places and the things they’re doing online without being too much of an invasive parent, if you want to call it that. And I think as a parent, it’s important to teach them right from wrong, and if I do my job teaching them right from wrong, they’re going to do the right things on social media and try to not let them make a fool out of themselves when they’re on there at some point or another. Don’t do something that you’re gonna regret five years from now. And I try.

This also a challenge for parents right now: When you post a picture of your kid on social media, it’s still gonna be there in 10 or 15 years from now. Someone’s going to be able to find that. So you want to be a little cautious about that. It’s not like a family photo album,  like “Oh little Timmy’s in the bathtub, it’s so cute, haha, it’s funny.” Well if little Timmy’s in the bathtub and 100,000 people can see him and they can have access to that same picture you just popped up there, what’s going to happen when little Timmy is 18 years old and he realizes that picture is still floating around there? So you’ve gotta be a little conscious of that stuff. I try to be conscious of it, but at the same time, I’m gonna brag a little bit and say I have two damn cute kids, so I like showing them off.

Thursday races don’t suck at all ????????

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Some day, if I have kids, they’re going to look at my accounts and tweets. I’m thinking some of the tweets I have now, I don’t want my kids to see that. I get mad about something on social media and if they’re a teenager, they’re going be like, “Dad, why did you say this about this race?” You can search tweets and things like that. Do you ever worry about your kids coming across something you’ve said online some day?

I try not to say anything that I’m gonna regret later. Sometimes you’ll pop off of your mouth and just put something out there quick, and there’s that rare occasion where I’ll go back and delete something and then I’m gonna have to delete it on this account and that account and then that account and then I know it’s still out there.

Other times, I’ll sit there and type something and I’ll read it and then I’ll delete it, then I’ll type something else. Like if I put everything that I typed out there, then I would have a problem with that. I don’t think I put too much out there that I’m not willing to answer for later or down the road, but I’m sure there’s going be questions. And to your point, it’s something I think about every day: How do I answer to them? What do I say to them if they ask me this question about this or about that?

I guess the other way I handle it is I’ll hand my phone to somebody sitting next to me. I do this more than anything if I’m using my phone for whatever social media it is — whether it’s my wife or a friend or whoever’s close by — I’ll say, “Hey, read this. Does this make sense?” or “Hey, read this. Is this funny?” So I’ll try and screen them before I put them out there. Is this offensive? I think sometimes when you’re worried about, “Is this going piss this guy off or make this guy mad?” you also gotta take into account that this is somebody who’s my friend, so they’re going to understand that I’m giving them a hard time. They’re going to understand this is what I’m doing here. And I think that goes for most situations.

What is something NASCAR can do better on social media to have an impact with today’s audience that they desperately need to attract?

I think to answer that correctly, you have to think about where social media’s going to be five years from now and how invasive it’s going be. We’ve got to be less reactionary and be a little more ahead of the curve on a lot of things. I feel like a lot of the times we do something as a reaction of something else that’s happened — and we’ve gotten better about that stuff — but originality (is important).

And I’m guilty of this. I have a hard time being original on there, but there are some things that are very original. Some of the stuff Bubba’s been doing lately, I think, is very original and I’ll give him credit where credit’s due on that stuff. So finding new ways to be original.

Social media is evolving so quickly. I don’t wanna call it an organism, but it’s almost what it feels like as it’s evolving and changing by the day, and it’s tough to keep up with. You’ve got people, companies with hundreds of thousands of people working for them trying to keep up with it and even they can’t. So I wouldn’t necessarily expect us as an industry to keep up with it every day.

But just continuing to be fresh and new. What those fresh and new ideas are? I don’t know — how far do we want to take it? Do we want to be social media-ing while we’re in the race cars? I mean, maybe we need to. I think as a general guideline, I think the more we can get fans (engaged), the better it’s going to be. Whether that’s heart rate monitors in the race car, whether that’s letting them see tire pressures real time and letting them feel like they’re making the same decisions as a crew chief. There’s a section of the fanbase that would love that stuff. Then there’s a section of the fanbase that doesn’t care about that stuff, that just wants to be here for the event and it just so happens that there’s a race going on in the background, then that’s cool. If we can find ways through social media to kind of tailor to each of those individual groups, I think that would be good.