My No. 13 pick was eliminated last week, so that wasn’t a surprise. But it was a surprise how it happened — at least to me — proving you never know when someone is going to get the boot.
Here’s how I see the players with the best chances to win Survivor: Game Changers headed into Week 3.
1. Brad (last week: 16). Bravo, Culpepper. From worst to first in two weeks. He seems like a completely different player and made a great move to manipulate Tai into voting off his closest ally.
2. Zeke (Last week: 2). He hasn’t really done anything yet to earn this spot, but I’m trying to maintain some consistency with my rankings (despite my Culpepper pick).
3. Troyzan (Last week: 4). Loving Troyzan this season and his idol snatch at the immunity challenge was an awesome moment. I know he doesn’t have the numbers right now, but this might buy him time until another swap.
4. Varner (Last week: 3) Still liking his position, and he needs to continue to let the bigger targets take each other out.
5. Hali (Last week: 10) Giving her some props here because I had her ranked 18th to start the season. She made a great argument at tribal and showed she really understands the game, though I recognize she currently is in a very bad spot on her tribe.
6. Cirie (Last week: 6). As much of a threat as she is, it seems like other people aren’t talking about her at the moment. That could buy her some time.
7. Andrea (Last week: 3). She got labeled as a liar by Troyzan (which was accurate), and that might hurt her. But she’s still in a decent position for now.
8. Sierra (Last week: 7). People aren’t going to come after her as long as there are more visible threats, so I’m starting to think she can make the merge.
9. Aubrey (Last week: 11). For as much talk about big players as there’s been — and she is one — people seem to be sort of looking at others before her.
10. Debbie (Last week: 15). She’s slowly moving up after starting the season 19th here. Yet another person who has changed their style early in this season.
11. Michaela (Last week: 14). She rebounded from a sloppy first episode, so maybe there’s still some hope.
12. Sarah (Last week: 9). It doesn’t seem like she’s on the radar for any reason, so I’m not sure that’s a good sign for a winner.
13. Malcolm (Last week: 5). With the loss of two meat shields right away, it’s time to start worrying about Malcolm. He simply won’t have cover for much longer, and they’ll be coming for him soon as a major threat.
14. Ozzy (Last week: 10). As soon as I heard him say he was going to have to take a leadership role on his new tribe, I knew he was in trouble.
15. J.T. (Last week: 12). Yeah, so great job with the whole stranding your tribe on the raft — that was a good little play — but now everyone knows he’s a schemer and is sneaky. Not exactly a long-term trust play.
16. Sandra (Last week: 18). She only moves up a spot because Tai played so bad. She’s a huge threat and won’t make the merge.
17. Tai (Last week: 17). Tai, Tai, Tai. Oh man. Brad totally talked him out of sticking with Caleb, showing once again how easily he can be manipulated. For as great of a human as he is, he’s not a great strategist on Survivor.
The 12 Questions interview series continues with Phoenix race winner Ryan Newman, who spoke with me earlier this month at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
1. How much of your success is based on natural ability and how much has come from working at it?
50-50. I guess you want to me to elaborate.
If you don’t mind.
I think you have to have a natural ability, otherwise you just aren’t ever going to get it. It’s no different than any other sport or any other pastime or any other job. But at the same time, in order to be as good as other people, you have to work at it. And that all depends on how gifted you are from the beginning. So the most gifted don’t have to work at it as much.
2. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards have all retired in the last couple years —
Carl didn’t retire. He has not said the ‘R’ word.
He’s gone for now.
When you quit, you stop. Which means you might come back. So he hasn’t retired.
So let me rephrase this. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards are not here —
Correct. Even though I just saw Jeff in the bus lot.
OK, let me try this again. Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards might be here, but —
They’re not driving. They aren’t driving this weekend.
They might be driving a rental car though, to you use your logic.
They aren’t driving a race car. They aren’t competing on the racetrack this weekend.
OK, that’s fair. What’s your pitch for fans of theirs to become fans of yours?
There is no pitch. You either enjoy racing and you like to watch a good race and you pull for the winner, or you don’t. That’s how Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart and Carl gained their fans. It wasn’t because they just combed their hair a certain way. Really, it’s not. It’s about who you are and how you win.
3. What is the hardest part of your job away from the racetrack?
It’s a loaded question, because the “hardest” can be the hardest physically or the hardest mentally. To me, it’s more about all the other things that go along with it. As much as I looked forward to signing my first autographs when I started at Penske, it’s not that I hate it now, it’s just that I dislike it. It’s just too redundant; I don’t like redundancy. So I’d say probably redundancy in what I do is probably the thing I dislike the most.
4. A fan spots you eating dinner in a nice restaurant. Should they come over for an autograph or no?
After I’m done eating, absolutely. That’s what it’s all about. But I enjoy my meal just like they do and don’t want to be interrupted.
So if you have food on your plate, come back a little later.
Right, yeah. There’s a lot of people that get it and there’s a lot of people that don’t get it. And the ones that get it, we appreciate.
5. What’s a story in NASCAR that doesn’t get enough coverage?
I would have to say the depth of what it takes to put on a race. So you talk about the cars, you talk about the spoilers, you talk about the aero package or the restrictor plate or whatever else, but you don’t talk about everything that goes into making it happen — every facet of our shop, the people, what goes into it. It’s more than just a race car showing up on a hauler and 15 guys making it happen. I think that depth is always lost and will probably be always lost to the extent that it needs to be detailed.
6. Who is the last driver you texted?
I think it was Stewart.
Does he still count as a driver? You might dispute that logic.
He’s still a driver. He drives.
He’s not a NASCAR race car driver.
No, you said driver. You didn’t say (NASCAR).
See, right there — Monday. (Newman shows a racing cartoon they texted. It’s a picture of a small desert island and one of the guys has a sprint car. The caption says, “Almost every other guy I know would have built a boat.”)
7. Do you consider race car drivers to be entertainers?
Yeah. I think the byproduct of what we do is entertainment; therefore, we are entertainers. I don’t think it’s our intention to go out and be an entertainer.
I like your logical approach to these answers. You just break it down very precisely.
Well that’s what questions are for — logical approaches.
8. What is your middle finger policy on the racetrack?
I use it when necessary.
How often is necessary?
I’m still confused on if you get penalized for it or not. I think it has to be direct. Is that the rule now? Maybe you can clarify.
I don’t think you can get penalized for using your middle finger on the track. If you use it outside the car, I bet they might say something.
You’re still flipping it out the window, so you’re broadcasting it. If you’re flipping off the official, then…
Well, the official, yeah.
Either way, it’s still in the car. There’s a little gray area in there still. They leave it open to potential income.
So if you got some clarification on the rule, you might use it more often.
I don’t like to use it, so…but yes. I would at least like to know what it wouldn’t cost me.
9. Some drivers keep a payback list in their minds. Do you also have a list for drivers who have done you a favor on the track?
Oh yeah. I mean, that list is way shorter than the other list, but yeah. I remember watching races, when Stewart won his championship there at Homestead, it just seemed like everybody was like, “Go for it, man — it’s all you.” Not to say that was wrong, but there’s times when it definitely looks like your payment comes back to you all at once.
10. Who is the most famous person you’ve had dinner with?
I don’t know. My wife. (Laughs)
11. What’s something about yourself you’d like to improve?
That’s a real good question. I would have to say if I could control my own social media without getting in trouble for controlling my own social media, that would be good.
You’re looking at Traci (Hultzapple), your PR rep.
(To Traci) Right? I mean, you’d like that, but then you wouldn’t like that.
12. The last interview was with Dale Earnhardt Jr., and his question is: “Who has the most punchable face in NASCAR?”
Punchable, as in you just want to punch them in the suckhole? I think the majority — and when I say majority, I mean the fans — would say Kyle Busch.
Would you like to punch Kyle in the face?
I have no reason to punch him in the face, but I think if you just go off the majority, then he’s the one.
The next interview is with AJ Allmendinger. Do you have a question I can ask AJ?
AJ, if you could build a racetrack — either a road course or an oval — what would the ideal racetrack be in your mind?
But now I’m getting a lot of tweets along the lines of: “Hey, that was funny, but we actually do want hats. When are the hats coming?” On top of that, no less than nine people (some very reputable!) have already reached out in the last 24 hours with offers to help me create and produce hats.
That’s all very nice, and I’m certain many of you are serious that you would actually buy JeffGluck.com hats. Super cool of you to be so supportive!
But here’s the thing: I don’t feel totally comfortable with selling hats. Or T-shirts. Or any merchandise, for that matter.
Look, I’m absolutely THRILLED people are so pumped about my new adventure, and it’s going amazingly well so far. At the same time, though, I’m still a journalist covering your favorite sport; I’m not in the sport.
As a media member, I’m supposed to be a go-between linking you with the drivers, so you can find out more information about them and get insight into their personalities. My job is to observe the show, not to be part of it.
I know at times that line has been blurred — especially after the Las Vegas fight video put me in a brief spotlight — but the mission with this site remains a journalistic one more than a business one. I want to have fun with you while watching everything unfold together.
So for now — and I say this despite much respect and appreciation for your wishes — there aren’t going to be any hats. I don’t want to rule out merchandise at some point in the future, but we’re only two months into this whole thing and I want to keep building the website/podcast in a respectable way — not cheapening it with JeffGluck.com coffee mugs and keychains.
Each week, I’ll give some race analysis through a post called the Top Five — notable storylines from the just-completed event. This week: Phoenix Raceway.
Well, how about THAT? Luke Lambert’s strategy call — which seemed like a total Hail Mary to most of us — actually worked, and Ryan Newman ended up with his first victory since Indianapolis in 2013. That’s 127 races ago! Heck, Richard Childress Racing hadn’t won a race since Kevin Harvick left the team for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Did anyone see this coming? Certainly not me.
So was Lambert making an educated guess or just taking a total gamble? Well, Lambert had looked at the data — and Newman was the best car on long runs throughout the race. That gave him faith the tires would hold up enough to give Newman a shot.
“I figured our best opportunity to win the race was to put the car out front and see if Ryan could make it wide enough,” Lambert said. “I can’t say I felt confident we would win the race, but I felt confident we’d at least have a shot. And I felt we wouldn’t be able to do anything else to give ourselves that opportunity.”
Inside the car, Newman recalled the sketchy restart last fall here — and realized there was a chance he could get taken out if he wasn’t careful. So his first priority was to just get a good enough start to have some clearance going into Turn 1 — and deal with whoever was behind him after that.
But with Kyle Larson in his mirror on fresh tires, Newman thought he might be toast. The No. 31 car, though, was stronger than expected (after all, it had been running top 10 prior to the strategy call).
“We had a good car, and it was the first time all day we put some clean air on it,” Newman said. “It was just a matter of putting those things together and showing y’all what we had.”
Larson the amazing
Kyle Larson is the latest example of the 2.5-year rule for new Cup drivers. Basically, young drivers either figure out how to find speed within the first 2.5 years of their career — or perhaps never get any better.
Everything seemed to click for Larson midway through last year, and he’s been a much more reliable contender ever since. These days, he’s one of the best drivers in the series — and the points leader!
Larson has now finished second in four straight non-plate races. That’s Homestead, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
And despite getting close to wins, Larson said the runner-up results aren’t getting tiresome — yet.
“I’m sure if I ran second for the next eight weeks, yeah, it’s probably going to grow old,” Larson said. “But it’s so cool to be one of the fastest cars every week. … I just hope we can continue to work hard, be consistent, be mistake‑free on pit road and on the racetrack. If we can just keep doing that, the wins are going to come.”
Everything isn’t great
When Kyle Busch’s team informed him Joey Logano’s tire had blown with five laps to go, Busch said, “Trust me — I know.”
Afterward, Busch was asked by KickinTheTires.net why he said that.
“I knew there was a going to be a tire blown because we haven’t made it past 44 laps in any run today without one being blown, right?” Busch said, practically biting his lip to stop himself from saying more.
It had to be a bitter pill for Busch to swallow — his recent nemeses Joey Logano and Goodyear essentially combined to cost him a race (although it wasn’t either of their faults directly; Logano melted a bead with excessive brake heat).
But just when it looked like Busch would go from puncher to victor in a week, it was he who ended up getting socked in the gut once again.
That’s the brakes for Logano, Dale Jr.
Two of the recent Phoenix race winners — Logano and Dale Earnhardt Jr. — were expected to be contenders on Sunday. But that never materialized.
Logano couldn’t recover from a speeding penalty after he developed brake problems, eventually blowing a tire that caused the final caution. And Earnhardt had similar issues with his brakes, meaning he had to tiptoe around the track.
“The car just got to where I couldn’t get into the corner the way I needed it to,” Earnhardt said. “The last half of the race, the brake pedal was just almost to the floor. A couple of times it was on the floor going into the corner — pretty scary.
“The whole last 50 to 60 laps, I was pumping the brakes on all the straightaways to keep the pedal up so I would have some brakes for the corner and lifting really early. We just couldn’t run it hard enough to get up there and do anything with it.”
Toyota young guns shine
Despite seeing Busch’s win chances vanish, it wasn’t all bad for Toyota. The manufacturer’s two rookies — Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones — both got their first career top-10 finishes after different strategy calls on the last pit stop.
Suarez finished seventh after taking two tires and Jones finished eighth after taking four. Regardless of how they got there, the results were much-needed confidence for Suarez and validation for Jones’ consistently speed to start the year.
“We didn’t have the speed, and the communication wasn’t great,” Suarez said of the first couple weeks. “We’ve been working hard trying to build chemistry, communication, and we have for sure been getting better.”
That communication was key to improving the car while also gaining track position on Sunday.
And Jones had to power through feeling sick, as he received two bags of IV fluids Saturday night after the Xfinity race.
“We’re going to have ups and downs, good weeks and bad weeks from here on out, but this is definitely a good week and one we can soak up for a minute,” he said.
Shortly after Justin Allgaier won the Phoenix Xfinity race on Saturday, Motorsport.com’s Jim Utter turned to me in the media center and gave me crap for a tweet implying the race was good because an Xfinity driver won.
And Xfinity gets a Xfinity regular winning the Dash 4 Cash race after NASCAR limits Cup veterans.
Utter observed the race was good either way — and it still would have been a good race even if a Cup driver like Ryan Blaney or Erik Jones had edged Allgaier for the win.
So would I have claimed it was a bad outcome, Utter asked, if a Cup guy won?
It’s a fair argument, but I’ll own my viewpoint: No matter what happens or how exciting the race is, if it’s a Cup guy in Xfinity victory lane, I won’t like it.
In that sense, Saturday was a good race. Allgaier hadn’t won since 2012, and he won on a day when veteran Cup drivers (five years or more of experience) were banned from participating.
And yeah, if a Cup guy won, I wouldn’t have said it was a “good” race.
A true racer would judge the racing off the action — not the participants — so I realize that exposes me a bit. But I’ve just never been able to get pumped about watching Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano moonlight in a series and suck all the oxygen out of the room. Nothing against them personally, but I just don’t find it interesting when they win a minor-league race.
After the race, I asked Allgaier if the absence of the veteran Cup guys changed the dynamic on Saturday. Yes and no, he said.
On one hand, he said, the typically strong cars driven by those Cup stars — like from Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing — were still in the race with excellent drivers. They weren’t easy to beat, and it was a “dogfight,” Allgaier said.
On the other hand…
“Kyle is really good here, so one would have to think he’d be up front battling it out,” Allgaier said.
And he was nowhere to be found. So was that a good thing?
“I think it certainly changes the way the race looks,” winning team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. said. “When Kyle in particular is in these races, he’s got such a great chance to win. The race from second on back is still probably as exciting, but he usually doesn’t make much of a race out of it. When he’s in the field, he doesn’t hardly get challenged by a lot of the teams.”
Busch fans complain the media just doesn’t like it when Busch wins, as if people are OK with any other Cup driver. Personally, I don’t feel it’s an Anybody But Kyle situation when it comes to who I want to see in victory lane.
But Utter was right to poke holes in my argument that it’s all Cup guys who I have an issue with, because it’s certainly a different feeling when a Suarez or Jones or Blaney wins vs. a Busch or Keselowski or Logano. I admit that.
Still, my thoughts haven’t changed since I used this as the topic for my very first NASCAR column in 2004: Cup drivers should not be allowed to race in the Busch/Nationwide/Xfinity Series.
There’s zero value to anyone but those teams who sell sponsorship around it; everyone else loses.
Invest in Xfinity by allowing the lower series drivers to build their own storylines and rivalries — “Names Are Made Here,” after all — and let the series have a completely unique identity.
NASCAR has been taking baby steps over the years — Cup drivers can’t run for points (2011), Cup drivers can’t race at Homestead (2016), veteran Cup drivers limited to 10 races (2017), etc. — but it can’t stop now.
But my fear is after seeing a positive result like Saturday, officials will say, “OK, we’ve fixed it and we don’t need to go any further.”
It could have easily been a Cup driver in victory lane, though, so it’s still just putting Band-Aids on a wounded series that needs stitches.
Ban Cup drivers from Xfinity races — period — and the series will be much better off.
I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.
Last week’s results: Played the $0 entry Daily Free Contest with $250 payout (because of Nevada gambling restrictions) and finished around 10,600th out of 20,300. Won $0.
Season results: $1 wagered, $0 won in three contests.
This week’s contest: For the second straight week, I’m in a state that only allows me to play a free DraftKings contest. Lame. So I’m in the $0 entry Daily Free Contest ($250 payout) again.
This week’s picks:
— Kevin Harvick ($11,100). I was really looking for ANY excuse to stay away from him since you know a gazillion people will have him on their team, but he starts 23rd. I want that position differential when he finishes in the top five (which he could do even on a non-dominant day).
— Kyle Busch ($10,100). Being fastest in 10-lap average over the course of a race like Phoenix — which often has long, green-flag runs — is an attractive proposition. He could be the dominator.
— Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500). Surprisingly affordable for a potential race winner. I know he starts too high (third), but damn — this team owned the fall race with Alex Bowman, was fastest in the January test and now looks good again this weekend. I’ll take that chance.
— Erik Jones ($7,500). I’m going to stay on the Erik Jones train until his price goes up. He’s one of the best deals out there lately, even though he starts a little high (eighth) for my liking.
— Jamie McMurray ($7,400). I’d love to pick Kyle Larson as well, but he’s too expensive for my lineup. The Chip Ganassi Racing cars have had a great start to the season, and although McMurray starts fifth, he has the ninth-best driver rating in the spring race over the last three years. He was also 10th-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice.
— Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300). Hoo boy. This is a big risk. But I had to go cheap to make this lineup work. I’m essentially hoping he can get a top-25 out of this, and then give me the points differential from moving up from 30th. We’ll see.