Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Dover

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Played $1 Happy Hour contest. Finished 2,500th of 14,700. Won $1.50.

Season results: $89 wagered, $104.50 won in 23 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad contest (single entry).

Dover picks:

— Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000): How can you leave Truex off your team these days? He piles up the laps led — which will be a big factor at Dover — and starts from the pole on Sunday. Oh, and he’s good here — he led 102 laps in the spring and 187 laps last fall en route to a win. Obviously, the other choice (and just as worthy) is Kyle Busch ($11,000).

— Erik Jones ($8,600): I want as many of the top Toyotas on my team as possible, and Jones almost had a top-10 finish here in the spring until a last-lap wreck left him in 15th. I would have liked to pick Dover master Jimmie Johnson ($9,400), but he was too expensive for a No. 2 slot if I pick Truex.

— Jamie McMurray ($8,100): McMurray has a favorable starting position for fantasy purposes (26th) and a good car to help you with place differential points. Plus he’s scrambling for a Round 2 playoff spot, so the team is going to be giving it everything they have after being fourth-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice. Another option at this price range is Ryan Blaney ($8,300).

— Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($7,900): It’s scary to pick Dale Jr. because something always seems to go wrong for him this season, but he has a strong car and is feeling optimistic about a strong run. He starts seventh, which may be too high for fantasy purposes, but he offers a decent value at this spot for someone who could pull a top-10 finish.

— Austin Dillon ($7,400): I’m shaky on this pick because Dillon doesn’t seem to have a great car this weekend. He was 24th of 32 drivers who ran at least 10 consecutive laps in final practice — and this after qualifying 23rd. Still, Dillon is on the cut line for the next round, so I assume he’s going to give it his best shot at a place where he has finished eighth and 13th the last two races.

— Daniel Suarez ($6,900): This feels like a steal for another strong Toyota that could get a top-10 finish. Even though he starts too high (fifth) for place differential reasons, you’re not going to find another driver at this price with a better chance of turning in a solid fantasy points day.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: New Hampshire

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Played $4 Brake Pad contest. Finished 185th of 1,200. Won $8.

Season results: $88 wagered, $103 won in 22 contests.

This week’s contest: $1 Happy Hour contest.

New Hampshire picks:

— Kyle Busch ($10,700): I’m pretty much in the habit of picking the polesitter every week now. It seems like the polesitter drives off and leads a large chunk of laps — sometimes the entire first stage — which will really add up with the amount of laps available at New Hampshire.

— Joey Logano ($8,700): Expensive pick, but he starts last and will gain you a lot of points as he works his way up through the field. Even if he finishes 15th, that’s a lot of points from position differential.

— Ryan Blaney ($8,000): Though his starting position is too high (fourth), there’s a chance he could lead a chunk of laps. He had the fastest 10-lap average in final practice — which was closest to race conditions — and has shown good speed all weekend.

— Erik Jones ($7,800): Toyotas still seem fast every week, so I like to try and get them into the lineup however possible. Jones was the second-fastest non-playoff driver in 10-lap averages for final practice (12th overall); his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Daniel Suarez was the other one (sixth overall). So I picked both.

— Daniel Suarez ($7,500): See above.

— Austin Dillon ($7,000): I only had $7,300 left, so it was a tough choice here. I would have loved to pick Kasey Kahne ($7,400), since it seems like he is having a good weekend — but I was $100 short. So it was tempting to go with Ryan Newman ($7,200), since he’s had a lot of success at a track where he also runs the Modified race. But Dillon has seemed to have speed lately and was 19th in 10-lap average for final practice, so perhaps he can provide decent value here.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Chicago

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Played $4 Brake Pad contest. Finished 1,080th of 2,100. Won $0.

Season results: $84 wagered, $95 won in 21 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad game (single entry).

Chicago picks:

— Martin Truex Jr. ($10,700): I expect him to lead laps and have a top-three finish, as he’s done so often this season. There’s no reason to think anything will change now, so Truex is being chosen as a hammer here.

— Kyle Busch ($10,600): Fastest in final practice. Fastest qualifying lap in relation to the rest of the field in years. Second-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice. Busch figures to dominate much of the race, perhaps leading every lap in the first stage, for starters. Take the points.

— Daniel Suarez ($7,800): I’m going with another Toyota, because it’s an intermediate track and there’s no reason to think their performance will suddenly drop off. Suarez is the cheapest top-running Toyota car; qualified 13th and had the 11th-fastest 10-lap average in final practice.

— Kasey Kahne ($7,700): The Hendrick cars don’t look great so far this weekend, and it’s not a good sign to see Kahne qualify 25th. However, that gives you an opportunity for place differential should he move up into the top 15 — which, let’s face it, needs to happen for his continued playoff chances.

— Austin Dillon ($7,300): Dillon is looking strong this weekend. He had the second-fastest single lap in final practice and was sixth in 10-lap average, which makes him a great bargain for this price. He starts a little high for fantasy purposes — ninth — but top-10 finishes at Darlington and Michigan show that he is running better lately.

— Michael McDowell ($5,800): Having Kyle Busch and Truex in the same lineup requires a deep cut somewhere. The good news for picking McDowell here is he qualified 30th, but has an average finish of 21.2 this year. Yes, he was slowest among all drivers in 10-lap average for final practice — NOT GOOD! But there’s a lot of potential positions to be picked up, which makes this a reasonable selection to help you with an expensive lineup.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Darlington Southern 500

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Played $4 Brake Pad contest. Won $0.

Season results: $76 wagered, $80 won in 19 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad game (single entry).

Darlington picks:

— Kyle Larson ($10,300): As you’ll see with these picks, I’m leaning heavily on 10-lap averages from Darlington practice. Single-lap speed doesn’t tell us much here — since the tires fall off so dramatically — so I want to pick cars that are good on the long run. Even though Larson hits the wall a lot at Darlington, he was fastest in 10-lap average for final practice (out of 26 cars), which I will take as a good sign.

— Denny Hamlin ($9,900): Hamlin was fastest in 10-lap average for the first practice and then dropped to fifth in final practice — but it was notable that his fastest run was from laps 21-30 during that session. That shows his team made positive changes and was getting faster. Hamlin also happens to be excellent at Darlington: His average finish is 6.3, which is the best of any driver and his personal best at any track.

— Jamie McMurray ($8,500): McMurray was eighth-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice and has been a pretty consistent top-10 car all season long. He looks like a solid choice for another good run on Sunday. This was a tough call, as Clint Bowyer ($8,400) also seems like a solid pick at this price range (Bowyer was ninth-fastest in 10-lap average and starts 16th, which is 11 spots further back than McMurray).

— Kurt Busch ($8,200): Aside from winning the Daytona 500, it hasn’t been a very good season for Busch (only two top-five finishes since then). So why would Darlington be any different? Well, Busch had two solid practices — he was third-fastest in 10-lap average for both sessions — before qualifying seventh. That could translate into a good Southern 500 performance.

— Kasey Kahne ($7,500): I’m not sure if I’m talking myself into this one or it’s really true, but the Hendrick Motorsports cars looked pretty decent in practice despite a poor team-wide qualifying effort (the top qualifier was Jimmie Johnson in 18th). So although Kahne starts 23rd, he was the fastest Hendrick car in final practice (ninth in single-lap speed) after being sixth in the first practice. That’s good speed for this price, although Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($7,600) is another viable option in this range if you’re willing to gamble that his slump will suddenly end.

— David Ragan ($5,600): If you’re looking for a bargain, I’m going with Ragan this week. Ragan’s 10-lap average was 16th of 26 cars in final practice, which puts him just behind Joey Logano and ahead of drivers like Daniel Suarez and Austin Dillon. He starts 26th, which is three spots higher than his season average. Compared to other options in this price range, Ragan’s prospects appear pretty decent.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Pocono

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last race’s results: Played $9 Brake Pad contest and finished 17,400th out of 50,400. Won $0.

Season results: $64 wagered, $72 won in 16 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad game (single entry).

Pocono picks:

— Kyle Busch ($10,700): The polesitter seems to have the fastest car in Pennsylvania. He’s going to lead a bunch of laps early in the race and could be your hammer overall.

— Matt Kenseth ($9,200): With the Toyotas looking fast at Pocono, why not go with a guy who starts 15th and could pick up some positions en route to a top-five finish?

— Kurt Busch ($8,500): He starts 18th and should finish better than that. Again, I’m going heavy on position differential here because there aren’t many laps available to lead at Pocono, so it could make a big impact.

— Ryan Newman ($7,600): Once more, I’m looking for value picks who can offer upside in position differential. Newman fits the bill because he starts 20th but may be the best of the Richard Childress Racing group today.

— Daniel Suarez ($7,200): This is the riskiest pick of the bunch, and it came down to Suarez or Kasey Kahne. The reason I went with Suarez is the Toyotas look to be strong today, although it makes me nervous he qualified so high (eighth) and doesn’t have much of a high ceiling. Kahne qualified 12th, if you’re thinking of going that direction.

— Ty Dillon ($6,600): Dillon’s average finish this year is 20th. He starts 30th. Take the potential gain from position differential at an affordable price and don’t tell anyone.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Kentucky

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played $9 Firecracker contest and finished 9,770th out of 45,800; won $15.

Season results: $47 wagered, $64 won in 13 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad game (single entry).

Kentucky picks:

— Kyle Busch ($10,200): A very expensive choice and it’s scary to pick the polesitter, but I envision him getting the lead at the start of the race and leading a chunk of laps early en route to a solid finish. I need a hammer, and I’m banking on Busch for that.

— Kyle Larson ($10,000): Duh, right? Everyone will pick Larson because he starts 40th (didn’t qualify) and has a huge upside for position differential. However, that doesn’t mean he’s the wrong pick just because everyone else will have him, too.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,400): He starts 16th and could easily get a top-10 finish, so that’s a positive. The price point isn’t terrible, and I needed a driver who wasn’t super expensive but still capable of a very good race.

— Kurt Busch ($8,100): Of the 15 drivers who ran 10 or more consecutive laps in final practice, Busch was ninth. While that’s not amazing, he was ahead of similar drivers at this range (like Dale Earnhardt Jr.) and starts 15th, so there’s some room for position gains there.

— Ryan Newman ($7,300): This pick is MAJORLY sketchy because Newman will drop to the rear due to an engine change (and you won’t get credit for him starting there). However, he technically starts 29th and I think he can rally for a top-15 finish even after starting in the rear. I need those points if so.

— Michael McDowell ($5,900): I don’t feel great about this one at all, but the price was right. Maybe McDowell (starting 21st) can pull out a top-15 finish and make the gamble pay off with my top-heavy lineup.

Posted on

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Sonoma

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played $4 Brake Pad single entry game; finished 50th of 1,500, won $20.

Season results: $30 wagered, $37 won in 11 contests.

This week’s contest: $8 MEGA Beast (with $50,000 to the winner!).

Sonoma picks:

— Kurt Busch ($9,800). He’s had six straight finishes of 12th or better at Sonoma, including four top-five finishes and a win. He starts 17th, so the chance for points gained through position differential — which is going to be huge for fantasy players at Sonoma, given the low number of laps — is very strong.

— Jimmie Johnson ($9,600). Even if Chad Knaus’ setup notes got stolen, Johnson is still excellent at Sonoma (seven top-10s in the last eight races) and the team will probably be on top of the complicated pit strategy. Plus, Johnson starts 24th — a major opportunity for place differential.

— Joey Logano ($9,000). The fact he starts 22nd is very attractive for fantasy players, particularly because this is a strategy race with the stages — and Logano crew chief Todd Gordon is always looking for outside-the-box ways to put his driver in a good spot. Logano has also finished fifth and third the last two races here.

— Kasey Kahne ($8,000). Another play with the position differential opportunity. Kahne starts 21st but has four straight top-10 finishes at Sonoma. Those points could be quite valuable if he can have another good run.

— Matt Kenseth ($7,500). Sonoma is one of Kenseth’s worst tracks and he’s never had a top-five finish here in 17 starts. But he’s starting 38th, and the prospect of even a top-20 finish would provide major points from position differential.

— Michael McDowell ($6,100). The fact he starts 16th is slightly concerning, because there’s a low ceiling for points differential even if he gets a top-10. But the road racing ace comes at a very low price and seems like a better option than Boris Said at $5,100, which was the other option I was considering here.