The Top Five: Breaking down the Martinsville playoff race

Five thoughts after Sunday’s Round 3 opener at Martinsville…

1. What if….

I recently invented a special machine that allows me to travel between parallel universes and watch NASCAR races in two different dimensions. I just arrived back from the alternate universe where Joey Logano elected to race cleanly and NOT move Martin Truex Jr. for the win at Martinsville.

If you’re wondering how that decision went over with everyone, I brought the postrace transcript from Logano’s runner-up press conference from the parallel universe. Here it is.

REPORTER 1: “Joey, it looked like you had a chance to move Martin out of the way on that last lap and backed out of it. What was going through your mind there, knowing that may have cost you a chance to reach Homestead?”

LOGANO: “Look, I love winning. But clean driving is everything to me. If I can’t have the respect of my competitors, I don’t want to be doing this. Martin raced me fair and square, so I wanted to do the same in return.”

REPORTER 2: “That’s great, but what do you say to your fans and team after passing up a guaranteed shot to make the final four?”

LOGANO: “Martin is a classy guy. We attend each other’s charity events and he’s always so nice when my wife and I see him in the motorhome lot. I know we’ll be friends for years to come. It’s just not worth it to ruin that relationship. Heck, we’re supposed to go out on the lake together this week!”

REPORTER 3: “Joey, it looks like Twitter is lighting up with fans who say you must not want a championship badly enough if that’s how you race. How do you answer critics who say you get paid millions of dollars to do whatever it takes to win?”

LOGANO: “Have you ever been loudly booed by a crowd? Have you ever had a driver’s significant other tweet something negative about you? I mean, geez. Those things hurt. I don’t want any part of that. I would rather be a good guy and keep my reputation intact than do anything to make people think I’m a dirty driver.”

(TWO MONTHS LATER)

SPONSOR: “Joey, we like you a lot, but we’re paying $20 million a year for our car to win races and championships. We’re going to be moving on.”

LOGANO: “Aw, OK. I hope we can still be friends!”

2. Respect for Truex

Is it possible to agree with Logano’s last-lap move and still empathize with the obvious anger felt by Truex and Cole Pearn?

Absolutely.

Truex had an incredible drive on Sunday. He had his qualifying time thrown out and started in the back, only to make it through the field — at Martinsville, no less! — and contend in the top five almost the entire day.

Truex fought his way toward the front, then patiently and cleanly worked Logano for the lead until making what seemed to be the winning pass.

Had Truex won, that would have been one of the highlights of his career: First short track win, a win-and-in ticket to Homestead, high stakes with his team getting ready to shut down and people loudly saying he’s the most vulnerable of the Big Three drivers to miss the final four.

Instead…Logano ran into him. And now making Homestead is no sure thing.

Frustrating! Super, super frustrating! Who wouldn’t be angry about that?

I still don’t blame Logano for making the move, but it’s completely understandable why Truex and his fans would be upset about it. When looking back in a couple weeks, that one moment could very well be the difference between competing for a championship and missing out altogether.

That said, as mad as he may be now, I see no scenario under which Truex retaliates. He’s just not that kind of driver. Even if he doesn’t make Homestead, Truex isn’t going to go out and ruin Logano’s championship race with a crash. He might race Logano hard, but Truex won’t pull a Matt Kenseth. No way.

3. What’s the code?

I’m not a driver, so this is just one interpretation of what’s OK on the last lap in NASCAR and what isn’t.

— If you can move someone out of the way and do it without ruining their day — i.e. without wrecking them or costing them more than a few positions — then it’s not only acceptable in NASCAR, but expected. And even encouraged by series officials.

— If you have a chance to door someone for a side-by-side finish, it’s a coin toss as to whether the other driver and the general fan base will think it’s an acceptable move. This often depends on the person initiating the contact.

— If you accidentally wreck the person while trying to move them (like Denny Hamlin on Chase Elliott), that is considered off-limits and there will be repercussions from both the other driver and fans.

— If you crash the person in a reckless-but-unintentional way (not necessarily on purpose, but understanding there will be full contact like Noah Gragson on Todd Gilliland), people may view it the same way as a blatant takeout.

— If you completely crash someone on purpose in order to win, that’s viewed as a dirty move that takes no talent and the fallout might stain your reputation for years.

Logano’s move on Truex — like any bump-and-run at a short track — is about the least offensive way to physically move someone and falls into the first category. That’s the type of move that can only happen in stock car racing and is a hallmark of what makes NASCAR fun. You’re not going to get that in Formula One, let’s put it that way.

4. Stuff that doesn’t matter

Over the last four weeks, I’ve taken a step back from NASCAR as I got off the road for the birth of my daughter. Though I’ve tried to follow the news as much as possible, there’s no doubt having a newborn at home makes it difficult to be as immersed in the NASCAR bubble as the weeks when I’m on the road at races.

And I’ve got to tell you: Looking at the big picture, it’s a bit alarming how the NASCAR world seems to get caught up in minor, tiny crap that doesn’t really matter and actually detracts from the sport.

One example is the race day morning inspection where qualifying times get thrown out. Here I am as a TV viewer who woke up excited to spend my Sunday watching some short-track racin’ across the country. I opened my Twitter app, and what was the big storyline of the day? Drivers getting their qualifying times disallowed, starting at the back for unapproved adjustments, crew members getting ejected, etc.

Seriously? This is what we’re talking about on playoff race day morning?? For a short track where aero doesn’t even really matter???

Officiating things that way certainly seems excessive. And yes, I know all about the reasons why they do it; I’m explaining the big-picture view of why it seems silly.

Another example was the race a couple weeks ago at Talladega. My wife was in the hospital that day and I was unable to pay much attention to the race, though we had it on in the background on mute.

When I tried catching up with what happened, the big controversy was apparently about whether NASCAR should have made the caution one lap shorter and whether officials should have thrown a yellow for a wreck on the last lap instead of having it finish under green.

Look, I completely understand why those are significant debates for those in the NASCAR industry and fans who are super passionate about the sport. But can you imagine how all this looks to casual fans or people who might want to give NASCAR a chance?

Headlines like Drivers criticize NASCAR for running them out of fuel with long caution! and Fans angry NASCAR chose drama over safety on last lap! just seem like such minor things from afar. As does Defending champion will start at the back today for failing laser scan on first try!

I’m not suggesting I have the solution to all this, because I don’t. And I’m not criticizing the media, certainly; when I get back at Texas next week, I’ll be all-in with the bubble once again.

But if these are the storylines, NASCAR has some real work to do. It cannot afford to be stuck on the minutiae, because there aren’t enough people left who care that much. Simplify things, focus on what really makes people want to spend their time on the sport (great racing and interesting driver storylines) and everyone will be much better off.

5. What’s next?

Logano taking a guaranteed spot at Homestead means at least one of the Big Three is going to have to point their way into the final four. After Martinsville, Truex and Kevin Harvick are tied for the last two spots, 25 points above the cutline.

I think both will be OK, as will Kyle Busch. Harvick is probably going to win Texas, Phoenix or both; Busch might win one of those as well. That means Truex, with a pair of top-five finishes, should be just fine.

Aric Almirola, Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch are already facing big points deficits after just one week. Are any of them going to win a race in this round? I actually think it’s more likely a non-playoff type like a Denny Hamlin or a Brad Keselowski will win, which would open up an addition points position for a Big Three member.

So as it turns out, perhaps all of the Big Three will make it to Homestead after all — just maybe not exactly how we expected.

The Top Five: Breaking down the Brickyard 400

Five thoughts after Monday’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway…

1. Keselowski a threat?

Ever since the “Big Three” entered the NASCAR lexicon in June, the obvious question has been: Which driver is the fourth? After all, having a four-man championship race requires more than just a Big Three.

Brad Keselowski won the Southern 500 last week, but just one race is nothing to get too excited about when it comes to championship contention. He hadn’t even won all year before Darlington.

But now Keselowski has won two in a row — and two of the biggest races of the season, at that — which makes him a lot harder to ignore entering the playoffs. When you combine Keselowski’s knack for managing the elimination system with his team’s ability to capitalize on opportunities like it has the last two weeks, that could be dangerous even for rivals who have more raw speed.

As we all know, the fastest car doesn’t always win in NASCAR — and the fastest four cars definitely don’t always make it to Homestead. Keselowski suddenly has the fourth-most playoff points (19), and I’d hate to be a driver having to beat him in a must-win situation.

Momentum is real in racing. So I’ve seen enough to pick Keselowski as my fourth playoff driver for Homestead (my complete predictions are in Item No. 5).

2. Unrestricted racing

This may very well have been the last unrestricted Brickyard 400 for the foreseeable future. So it’s fitting it ended with a classic, NASCAR-style finish.

On a restart with three laps to go, Clint Bowyer spun the tires and opened the door for Keselowski to challenge Denny Hamlin for the race lead. Despite Keselowski having fresher tires, he had to use every move in his driver bag of tricks to get by Hamlin as they were coming to the white flag.

What we saw were two drivers going all out and doing everything they could while operating at their peak talent level in order to win. It was the kind of moment that makes NASCAR so special.

But that’s likely going away soon. The All-Star aero package (or whatever your name for it is) was used in the Xfinity race earlier Monday, and you get the feeling most fans would say they preferred that racing over the Brickyard 400 itself.

NASCAR reportedly wants to run that package in up to 14 Cup races next year, and the Brickyard will certainly be one of them. And it works better here than other places.

At the same time, that is going to be tough to swallow. The idea of the Brickyard 400 — even with stages and competition cautions and the like — still has a purity. It’s the best stock car racers on the planet pushing themselves to the absolute limit and forcing their equipment to race on the edge of disaster. The best drivers often win the battle.

That might be the case in the future as well, but it will be more of a coincidence. Pack racing and drafting takes a different skill set, and it doesn’t take the same incredible talent to just run wide open around a 2.5-mile course.

So I’ll miss Cup races like today’s, even if it was boring at times compared to the Xfinity race. Because when it was all said and done, it felt more like real racing than what the future appears to hold.

3. One-day show for the win

Hey, did you notice NASCAR held two races without a single practice or qualifying lap on Monday — and had no problems whatsoever?

No one has dared to start a Cup race without some laps on the track since I can remember (2004 until now), although the weather has always allowed for some on-track activity before the race.

It turned out just fine, though. The drivers and engineers don’t need practice. They honestly don’t even need qualifying.

This proves NASCAR could easily do a one-day show if it wanted to. Show up to a track on a Wednesday night, give teams a 30-minute shakedown practice at 2 p.m., qualify at 4 p.m. and race at 7 p.m. It would be a great event and probably wouldn’t turn out any different if it was a three-day weekend with four hours of practice.

Officials should at least try it a couple times to see if it can work. After Indy, it seems like it would be an easy way to condense the season schedule without actually losing any races.

4. On the outside

As the playoffs begin, we bid farewell to the once-promising seasons of several drivers.

Jamie McMurray had made the playoffs for three straight seasons and everyone figured his consistency would get him back again this year. Instead, he finished the regular season ranked 21st in points and had news of his imminent departure from a full-time ride at Chip Ganassi Racing reported before Monday’s race.

Daniel Suarez, who finished the regular season 20th in the standings, was unable to capitalize on the great speed shown by Joe Gibbs Racing almost all season long. His three teammates made the playoffs while he did not. Meanwhile, reports have Truex replacing Suarez in what is currently the No. 19 car next season.

Then there’s Ryan Newman, who has made the playoffs seven times but was the first driver out this season. His future at Richard Childress Racing is in doubt as well.

Paul Menard couldn’t make the playoffs in his first season at Wood Brothers Racing, although Ryan Blaney did it in the same ride last year. And William Byron missed the playoffs in his rookie year as his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates all got through (albeit taking two of the last three spots).

5. Playoff predictions

I recorded a preseason playoff predictions podcast with Bubba Wallace in January. The results: I got 13 of the 16 drivers (I had Newman, McMurray and Byron instead of Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola) and Wallace got 12 correct (he had Newman, McMurray, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and himself instead of Almirola, Bowman, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer).

So I’m not exactly that great at predictions, but I’ll try again anyway for the playoffs.

In the first round, it will be Dillon, Bowman, Blaney and Jones getting eliminated.

In Round 2, Johnson’s shot at Championship No. 8 will end, along with Almirola, Kurt Busch and Logano.

When it gets down to the final eight drivers, it will be a shocking elimination for Truex, along with Bowyer, Hamlin and Larson.

Then it will come down to the final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Keselowski and Elliott — with Harvick winning his second title over Busch.