I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.
Last race’s results: Did not play in Phoenix due to Arizona state law.
Season results: $102 wagered, $104.50 won in 26 contests.
This week’s contest: $8 Favorite Son Finale contest ($100,000 in prizes)
Homestead picks:
— Kyle Busch ($10,500): I think he’s going to win the championship, which means he’s probably going to have to win the race. He’ll have to lead laps if he’s going to do that, so he’s my primary hammer pick.
— Kevin Harvick ($9,700): He starts seventh, but I could see him running top three for much of the night. So I’m going with Harvick here, although Chase Elliott ($9,400) was also tempting based on a place differential pick (Elliott starts 18th).
— Denny Hamlin ($8,900): He’s going to lead a lot of laps in the first stage with what might be the fastest car in Florida. That makes him a good hammer pick if he delivers, despite being on the pole.
— Erik Jones ($8,100): I’ve picked Jones so many times this year, and it’s been boom or bust. But he’s often been the cheapest Toyota option, and he starts 14th — which means he could gain you spots in a fast car. He had the ninth-fastest 10-lap average in final Cup practice.
— Ty Dillon ($6,900): This is a position differential play, because he starts 32nd. But he was 16th of 31 drivers who made runs of at least 10 laps in final practice, so that’s promising.
— Michael McDowell ($5,800): Obviously a bit of a risk — especially since he starts 23rd — but McDowell had the 21st-best 10-lap average in final practice (better than the likes of Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson and Daniel Suarez), so there might be some potential there.