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DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks for Bristol

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played the $4 Chrome Horn game. Finished out of the money.

Season results: $12 wagered, $0 won in seven contests.

This week’s contest: $3 entry Hot Rod game with $20,000 total payout.

Bristol picks:

— Kyle Larson ($10,100). I need drivers who are capable of leading a lot of laps, and I envision Larson leading the first 50 — at least — after starting on the pole.

— Matt Kenseth ($9,100). He’s so consistent and will be able to adapt to changing conditions with success. He won’t lead many laps after starting 22nd, but I could see him having some success later in the race.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,400). He was competitive in the past here even when his cars weren’t, and he was second-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice.

— Erik Jones ($7,800). Even though he made his best laps this weekend on the bottom lane, he clearly has a fast car in general (as do all the Toyotas). He was also fifth-fastest in final practice for 10-lap averages.

— Kasey Kahne ($7,600). Pretty great value for a guy who was fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice. Plus, he had the third-fastest single lap speed.

— Daniel Suarez ($7,000). It seems like this place suits him, and I like the extra laps he got from the Xfinity race. He might not lead laps, but if he can get a top-10 and get points differential from starting 23rd, that could be a good value.

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DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Texas

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last week’s results: Played the $3 Casual Slingshot game. Finished around 2200th of 5900.

Season results: $8 wagered, $0 won in six contests.

This week’s contest: $4 entry Chrome Horn game with $250,000 total payout.

Texas picks:

— Kyle Larson ($10,300). Thanks to failing to get through inspection before qualifying, he starts 32nd. Even though he’s expensive, I’ll take the point differential en route to another top-five finish.

— Kyle Busch ($9,900). See Larson, Kyle. Except Busch starts even further back (34th) and was fastest in 10-lap average for final practice.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,800). Honestly, this was the last pick I made and I am shaky on it — especially since Bowyer starts third. But I needed a hammer, and I didn’t have enough money to pick Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski or Martin Truex Jr.  And though Ryan Blaney was tempting, I haven’t seen enough out of him to feel good about his chances of leading tons of laps. So I ended up with Bowyer. We’ll see.

— Erik Jones ($7,600). Like Larson and Busch, Jones also couldn’t make a qualifying lap due to not passing inspection and starts 36th. He’s also in a backup car, which isn’t ideal, but it was still decent in practice (10th of 17 cars who made 10-lap runs in final practice).

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000). Both Roush Fenway cars have looked really good all weekend, except Trevor Bayne crashed his during final practice. But Stenhouse was fourth-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice and might have a top-five car overall. His ceiling is relatively low since he starts 11th, but the price is right.

— Chris Buescher ($6,000). Another driver whose team couldn’t get through inspection in time to qualify, Buescher finds himself starting 38th. But he was ninth-fastest in 10-lap average for final practice — better than the likes of Jones, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray — and comes at a great price.

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DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks for Martinsville Speedway

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last week’s results: Played the $4 entry Pedal to the Medal with $50,000 payout and finished around 40,100th out of 88,200. Won $0.

Season results: $5 wagered, $0 won in five contests.

This week’s contest: $3 Casual Slingshot game with a $15,000 total payout.

Martinsville picks:

— Kyle Busch ($10,300). According to Joe Schroder of DFSDash.com, Busch was fastest in 10-lap, 15-lap and 20-lap averages during final practice. Official NASCAR data was not immediately available this week, so I’m leaning heavily on that tweet I linked.

— Kyle Larson ($10,000). Larson has said he stinks here, but he was awarded the pole and has a good chance to lead a lot of laps early. I figure there are so many laps up for grabs here (500!) that it’s important to try and guess lap leaders this week.

— Denny Hamlin ($9,700). I’m not going to pass up on the guy who might be the best Martinsville driver.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,000). He’s been pretty solid at Martinsville over the years, and he seems to have his confidence and mojo back. With a good car underneath him, I could see a potentially good day. I had to decide between Bowyer and AJ Allmendinger, so that was a tough one (you might want to go the opposite of me).

— Danica Patrick ($6,100). I needed a couple cheap drivers to make this work, and she’s actually had some of her best runs here. I’ll need another one Sunday if my lineup has any chance of success.

— Cole Whitt ($5,100). Whew, this is scary. But I’m picking him over guys like Chris Buescher and Landon Cassill because he was downright decent in practice. He was 15th in 10-lap averages for final practice (again according to Joe Schroeder). So we’ll see.

Unused salary cap money: $800

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DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks for Fontana

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last week’s results: Played the $0 entry Daily Free Contest with $250 payout (because of Arizona gambling restrictions) and finished around 1,800th out of 18,000. Not bad, but still won $0.

Season results: $1 wagered, $0 won in four contests.

This week’s contest: I’m in a state where I can play DraftKings again, so I’m making up for lost time by playing the $4 entry “Pedal to the Metal” contest that pays $50,000 to first and $300,000 in total prizes. Yes, please! I also entered the free $10,000 contest DraftKings is running this week because why not? It’s free.

This week’s picks:

— Joey Logano ($10,300). He didn’t get out to qualify because his car had trouble getting through inspection, so there’s massive upside for a driver starting 35th.

— Jimmie Johnson ($9,800). After wrecking in practice, Johnson had to go to a backup car and didn’t even attempt to qualify. That means last year’s winner is starting 37th. I’m not going to pass that up.

— Erik Jones ($7,700). Fastest in the first practice on Saturday and fastest for 15-lap average for both practice sessions (according to FOX, since NASCAR does not release those numbers). I’ve had him on my team almost every week, and there’s no reason to stop now.

— Jamie McMurray ($7,500). Those Chip Ganassi Racing cars are red-hot lately, and McMurray was second-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice. You gotta ride the momentum, right?

— Austin Dillon ($7,300). Dillon was my last pick here, but my salary cap dictated I decide between drivers like him and Aric Almirola, I lean slightly his direction, though I’m a little shaky on the pick.

— Trevor Bayne ($7,200). I picked him for exactly one reason: He didn’t get to qualify and has to start 36th. I feel like the positions he could make up during the race will offset what could be a mediocre finish.

Leftover salary cap money: $0.

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DraftKings NASCAR picks for Phoenix spring race

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last week’s results: Played the $0 entry Daily Free Contest with $250 payout (because of Nevada gambling restrictions) and finished around 10,600th out of 20,300. Won $0.

Season results: $1 wagered, $0 won in three contests.

This week’s contest: For the second straight week, I’m in a state that only allows me to play a free DraftKings contest. Lame. So I’m in the $0 entry Daily Free Contest ($250 payout) again.

This week’s picks:

— Kevin Harvick ($11,100). I was really looking for ANY excuse to stay away from him since you know a gazillion people will have him on their team, but he starts 23rd. I want that position differential when he finishes in the top five (which he could do even on a non-dominant day).

— Kyle Busch ($10,100). Being fastest in 10-lap average over the course of a race like Phoenix — which often has long, green-flag runs — is an attractive proposition. He could be the dominator.

— Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500). Surprisingly affordable for a potential race winner. I know he starts too high (third), but damn — this team owned the fall race with Alex Bowman, was fastest in the January test and now looks good again this weekend. I’ll take that chance.

— Erik Jones ($7,500). I’m going to stay on the Erik Jones train until his price goes up. He’s one of the best deals out there lately, even though he starts a little high (eighth) for my liking.

— Jamie McMurray ($7,400). I’d love to pick Kyle Larson as well, but he’s too expensive for my lineup. The Chip Ganassi Racing cars have had a great start to the season, and although McMurray starts fifth, he has the ninth-best driver rating in the spring race over the last three years. He was also 10th-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice.

— Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300). Hoo boy. This is a big risk. But I had to go cheap to make this lineup work. I’m essentially hoping he can get a top-25 out of this, and then give me the points differential from moving up from 30th. We’ll see.

Remaining salary: $100.

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DraftKings picks for Atlanta

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission.

Last week’s results: Played the free Daytona entry game and finished around 8,700th out of nearly 80,000. Won $0.

Season results: $0 wagered, $0 won in one contest.

This week’s contest: Playing the $1 entry “Happy Hour” $20,000 payout game.

My picks ($50,000 salary cap):

— Jimmie Johnson ($10,600). Yeah, I’m taking the most expensive guy. But he starts 18th, and that’s an attractive possibility for a points from positions gained. Plus he’s won here for two straight years.

— Kyle Larson ($9,100). This is a little bit of a gut pick, so maybe that’s a bad idea (my gut is usually wrong). But Larson is so talented at both driving a loose car and running the high line, and Atlanta offers both. He’s not exactly a steal at $9,100, and there’s not much statistically to back me up here, so…this might not work.

— Austin Dillon ($8,200). I’m riding with the Richard Childress Racing cars and affiliates this weekend. Four RCR-related cars were in the top 12 of the best 10-lap averages from final practice. Ryan Newman almost won the pole and was fastest in 10-lap average, but I’m staying away due to his low ceiling for points. Dillon, though, starts 19th.

— Kasey Kahne ($8,000). I picked Kahne because he starts 29th, so he’s the No. 1 option from a top team who starts back in the field. He was only 26th in fastest 10-lap averages from final practice — NOT GOOD — but I still think he could make up some positions.

— Ty Dillon ($6,100). I don’t feel super confident about this one, since a 500-mile race offers a lot of opportunities for young drivers to mess up. But Dillon was 10th-fastest for 10-lap averages in final practice, which was faster than drivers like Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Plus, he starts 26th.

— Michael McDowell ($5,700). McDowell was gaining some decent momentum at the end of last year and getting top-20 finishes — and he’s another RCR-related car. So I’ll take a chance on him after he failed to get through inspection and starts the race 36th. Since he never took a qualifying lap, he starts the race on fresh tires — which could be big at Atlanta.

Note: I’m leaving $2,300 in salary cap on the table here. That definitely seems like a bad idea, but at the same time, I’m trying to think of what will gain the most points through position differential in addition to a respectable finish. We’ll see how it goes.

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DraftKings strategy and picks for the Daytona 500

DraftKings is running a free-entry $10,000 total payout contest for the Daytona 500, so it’s a good time to jump into the daily fantasy world if you’ve been considering it.

The field of NASCAR players in DraftKings has been growing dramatically over the last year, with the company citing data that shows contest entries up 126% since last year’s 500.

I’ve played DraftKings a few times over the last couple years, and I’m absolutely terrible. I always see tweets from my Twitter followers about them winning money, but I never do.

So I asked Pearce Dietrich, DraftKings’ NASCAR expert, to give me a few pointers on Daytona strategy. As it turns out, I’ve been looking at Daytona all wrong.

“Going into this race, don’t pick it like a normal race,” he said. “You’re trying to get guys who are in the back and move them up.”

Why? Because in addition to points for the finishing position, DraftKings scoring is +/- one point for every position gained or lost from the starting grid. Martin Truex Jr. starts 35th after failing inspection, which gives him an opportunity to gain way more points than a driver who starts in the top 10.

“Clint Bowyer is starting sixth, so even if he wins the race, he could max out at 48 points,” Dietrich said. “In last year’s Daytona 500, 48 points would only be the ninth-best driver. And that’s the best he can do. So guys like Bowyer can have a good race day in real life, but in fantasy, you’re looking for those home run guys.”

Last year, five of the six top point-scorers in the 500 started outside the top 25, led by Truex (70 points) and Ryan Newman (62) and Regan Smith (58).

So even though it’s tempting to pick the Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin types, it might not be worth it because they have a low ceiling for success.

Though there are also awards for fastest driver on a given lap (0.5 points) and a lap led (0.25), that’s hard to predict at Daytona.

“You might have a guy that leads a lot of laps, but that’s mostly one guy,” Dietrich said. “And you can’t really count on fastest lap because of the draft. So the guys who stand to score the most are guys who started toward the back and ended up in the top 15.”

Based on that, here’s the lineup I’m going with for Sunday. (Note: I wouldn’t trust these picks because I’m generally terrible at this, but I’m writing them anyway.)

— I’m going to pick Elliott Sadler ($6,600) for my first slot. He’s starting last, but he’s worth a shot considering what a good plate racer he’s been over the years (even though he hasn’t made many appearances in Cup races lately). And doesn’t it seem like Tommy Baldwin Racing’s Top 10 Kids Eat Free at Golden Corral car is often in contention here?

— Since he failed inspection after the Duel and now starts 35th, Truex ($9,000) seems like an expensive but worthy pick. He could have a repeat of last year’s DraftKings points bonanza. I’ll take the risk.

— On a similar note, AJ Allmendinger ($6,700) starts 38th after failing Duels inspection. He only has four DNFs due to crashes in 29 career restrictor-plate starts, so that’s not bad.

— Landon Cassill ($5,500) has a good combination here: He’s a solid plate racer, comes at a cheap price and starts 27th — seven spots further back than his equally tempting Front Row Motorsports teammate, David Ragan.

— At this point, I have a LOT of money to spend on just two more drivers — a whopping $22,200! So although he’s had a shaky Speedweeks, why not go with Jimmie Johnson ($10,000)? He’s starting 24th, so those are some decent points for a guy who could finish in the top five (or win).

— Now I’ve run out of drivers I really trust to make big comebacks from the mid-20s and lower, so I’m going to do something I probably should avoid and pick Brad Keselowski ($10,300). I am totally sold on Keselowski’s ability to lead a ton of laps, which could make up for his low points potential (he starts seventh).

So that’s my lineup and I have $1,900 left. Did I make the right calls? We’ll see.

Side note: If you decide to play, please use this link because I just signed up for DraftKings’ affiliate program, which means you can actually help support this website through your future entry fees if you’re a new player.