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The Top Five: Breaking down the Las Vegas playoff opener

Five thoughts following Sunday’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway…

1. Well actually…

A couple months ago, this NASCAR season seemed destined to go down as one of the most predictable in years. The Big Three won 17 of the first 23 races, some of which were as exciting as watching a cooking show rerun for the seventh time.

It just felt like such an effort to try and find something good out of the races, particularly at the intermediate tracks.

But everything has changed now, and 2018 is quickly turning into one of the best seasons in years.

Yes, really.

The second half of the Cup Series schedule has completely come alive with a string of entertaining, enjoyable, unpredictable races. The Bristol night race was close to racing perfection, and that came on the heels of a fantastic Watkins Glen race that was excellent from start to finish. Chicago (“Slide Job!”) was a classic. Daytona had a fun new winner (“How about that race, boys and girls?”), New Hampshire was unexpectedly entertaining for flat-track standards and Indianapolis had a thrilling finish.

Then came Sunday in Las Vegas, which turned out to be one of the craziest playoff openers NASCAR has seen. And it happened at a 1.5-mile track, at that!

Suddenly, the seemingly inescapable slog of watching the same drivers win every week has turned into a season no one could have seen coming.

NASCAR actually has a really good thing going with its on-track product right now. That extends to other series as well; Las Vegas was a weekend tripleheader where all three races were excellent — again, at an intermediate track! — and NASCAR has an entertainment-to-time-investment ratio that is as much as any race fan could ask for lately.

I know it sounds crazy based on how completely BLAH this season seemed for awhile, but this honestly could turn into a memorable year which people end up longing for when it’s gone (especially if it’s the last year with the “true racer” package).

Either way, the playoffs are off to a wildly unpredictable start, and with Richmond and the Roval up next, this is shaping up to be the best first round since the elimination format began.

2. What NASCAR has going for it

I’ve been covering a lot of different forms of racing this year, and it’s made me realize what NASCAR is doing right — although it doesn’t seem to be talked about or appreciated very much, even by the people who work in it.

NASCAR is the pinnacle of major league racing in the United States. That’s not an insult toward IndyCar — which I enjoy very much! — but the crowd sizes, TV numbers and facilities aren’t consistently in the same ballpark. Even with NASCAR’s decline, it’s still the big gorilla of American motorsports.

The Cup Series races on the greatest oval tracks in the world, beautiful and well-kept modern venues that can accommodate everyone from drivers to fans to media to production to sponsors and more. It’s important to remember as much as we all may pine for more short tracks and road courses, the vast majority of those tracks are not up to the high standards of Cup racing.

But most important, Cup reflects the soul of American racing. Most racing around this country is done at the local tracks, not the big NASCAR tracks, and the Cup Series is a fabulous melting pot of drivers you’d NEVER get to see race against each other without it. From asphalt Late Models to sprint cars to dirt Late Models, the most talented can ascend to the Cup Series and race each other to find out who is the best.

Take Sunday’s late battle for the lead as an example: Brad Keselowski, the scrappy and analytical racer who cut his teeth on pavement short tracks of the upper Midwest, was competing against Kyle Larson, who some in the dirt community believe may be the most talented dirt racer ever based on his ability to parachute into any race and instantly have a chance to win.

Larson used his freakish natural talents to once again will his car into exceeding its likely potential for the day and battled Keselowski for as long as possible as the former Cup champion used his techniques to try and get the position.

That’s an incredible thing that may be unique to NASCAR in all the world. For example: In Formula One, all the drivers come up wanting to drive in Formula One and are on that path from the start. Not so in Cup.

But too many people like myself learn about motorsports through NASCAR first and thus view everything through the NASCAR prism. Folks, there’s a lot of other racing out there — and that should be celebrated and lifted up when some of those racers try their hand at stock cars.

So instead of NASCAR telling Larson to shut up about his dirt racing, they should be promoting the hell out of it. TV should make sure every fan is immediately familiar with each driver’s background, just as much as fans know the sponsors and teams. I think that would add a lot to the viewing experience for others, because it’s absolutely changed things for me.

3. Even the best make mistakes

Speaking of the best drivers in America…uh, what the heck happened at Las Vegas?

I asked several drivers, but no one seemed to have a great answer that made sense. Mostly it was about the heat (it affected the tires and made the drivers more irritated with each other) and the playoff situation (with more on the line, drivers tried to be more aggressive if they were having bad days).

Denny Hamlin’s comment struck me the most: He said he tried to take a 15th-place car and get more out of it. Then he went over the limit, spun and hit the car-killing grass (which is another topic in itself).

Is it a situation where one driver gets more aggressive, and suddenly they all do?

“A certain element to motorsports will always be that we play a game of chicken,” Keselowski said.  “Whether it’s on restarts or whatever scenario it might be, understanding who has what stakes on the line is really important.

“When one person pushes you hard and then you let them in or let it go, then eventually someone else does it, and now you find yourself in the back playing from behind, and now you start to do it.  It creates an escalating effect.

“With that in mind, eventually both guys don’t lift, and things happen. With that said, the playoffs, of course, when you’re playing from behind can make you take more risks.”

4. Not the best date for Vegas

The hot track made for great racing and was a fitting opener for the playoffs, especially since NASCAR could have a little pomp and circumstance with the burnout parade and fan events down on the Strip.

But Las Vegas clearly didn’t provide the ideal experience for fans in person — not because of the track itself (which might be the best overall when considering the Neon Garage), but the brutal heat. There was no escaping the baking, scorching desert sun in the seats, so the options were either to suffer through it or go underneath the stands. When I crossed from the press box to the infield with about 80 laps to go, I was sort of blown away at how many people were sitting on the ground, heads in their hands or wet towels on their necks or faces. People looked red and overheated; a few, truthfully, looked like they were suffering.

NASCAR and Las Vegas are in a tough spot. The city wants fans to be in the casinos and restaurants at night — not at the track — so the race needs to be during the day. But at this time of year, it’s still soooo hot (it’s not like these temperatures were a surprise, in other words).

So yes, this race should probably be later in the playoffs. If that’s the case, though, what else does NASCAR slot in for the opener of its most important 10-race stretch?

5. Points picture

Throughout the year, this item has been for discussion of the current points situation. That won’t change now with an especially intriguing playoff picture heading into the second race of Round 1.

Denny Hamlin, of all people, is last in the playoff standings, already 20 points behind the cutoff. He’s on pace to go winless for the first time in his career.

Erik Jones, who had a string of top-10 finishes entering the playoffs and won the Las Vegas pole, suddenly finds himself 19 points out of a transfer spot. That has to be tough to swallow.

Then there’s Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson, both who seemed headed toward solid finishes only to see them disappear. Elliott is nine points behind the cutoff spot (currently the other Hendrick driver, Alex Bowman) and Johnson is down by six.

Here are the full standings:

Brad Keselowski (clinched Round 2 spot)

Martin Truex Jr. +65

Kyle Busch +63

Kevin Harvick +38

Joey Logano +34

Kurt Busch +24

Ryan Blaney +20

Kyle Larson +19

Aric Almirola +12

Austin Dillon +9

Clint Bowyer +7

Alex Bowman +6

——-

Jimmie Johnson -6

Chase Elliott -9

Erik Jones -19

Denny Hamlin -20

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News Analysis: Ryan Newman to leave Richard Childress Racing

What happened: In an oddly timed social media post — in the minutes following Saturday’s final practice — Ryan Newman announced he will not return to Richard Childress Racing and the No.  31 car after five years with the team. Newman had one win with the team and made the playoffs three times, notably finishing second in the inaugural season of the one-race playoff format.

What it means: Newman likely either already knows where he’s going or has a good idea of his options. There are quite a few open rides now that the Silly Season dam has burst, including the No. 6 at Roush Fenway Racing and the No. 95 at Leavine Family Racing (depending on what Daniel Suarez does now that Martin Truex Jr. is reportedly heading to the current No. 19). It seems likely Newman would be able to bring at least some sponsorship with him — he’s had a half-dozen different companies on his car this season — so that may help his prospects. He’s still only 40 years old, which means he should have at least a few solid years left in him. And despite being under the radar most weeks, Newman still often brings consistent performances to a team.

News value (scale of 1-10): Four. This move was widely expected and is mostly a confirmation instead of a surprise. It would be bigger, obviously, if we knew where he was headed.

Three questions: Which driver will Childress hire for the now-vacant No. 31 car? Will Newman’s next team be a step down in competition level, or will he still have a chance to be a playoff driver? How much longer does Newman want to race?

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Playoffs Media Day podcast with NASCAR drivers

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In this goofy special edition of the podcast, half of the NASCAR playoff drivers took a few minutes on Media Day in Las Vegas to discuss a variety of subjects. Topics include Ryan Blaney’s Twitter emoji, what reporting style they’d use if they became a media member, Kyle Larson’s upcoming mid-playoffs wedding and the proper dress code for a racetrack. The podcast features appearances from (in order): Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman and Martin Truex Jr.

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12 Questions with Will Power (2018)

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The series of 12 Questions driver interviews continues this week with Indianapolis 500 winner Will Power, who drives for Team Penske.

1. How often do you have dreams about racing?

I do definitely have dreams about racing. I’m trying to think of the last one I had. I’ve had dreams about winning races and that sort of thing. Winning the championship, I think that was my last dream, actually.

2. If you get into someone during a race — intentional or not — does it matter if you apologize? And I guess in IndyCar, you would never mean to do that.

Yeah, I’m sure it does. It’s good when you hear from someone if they took you out. If they don’t say anything, it’s kind of rude, I suppose. If you take someone out and it’s your mistake, you should talk about it and apologize.

Am I correct in thinking there’s no intentional wrecking in IndyCar?

There isn’t. Guys at the end of the year take more of a risk when you’re in certain situations and you have to beat someone. But you just can’t intentionally wreck someone in this series. It’s too dangerous.

3. What is the biggest compliment someone could give you?

I think the biggest compliment is that you’re a clean, good, fast racer and a good guy off the track.

4. IndyCar comes to you and says they’re bringing a celebrity to the track and they want you to host them. Who is a celebrity you’d be excited to host?

Dave Grohl. That’d be pretty cool to have him. I don’t know if we’d put him in the Penske corporate (suite) — he needs to be in a Snake Pit type scenario. But that would be a celebrity I’d love to host.

5. In an effort to show this is a health conscious sport, IndyCar decides to offer the No. 1 pit stall for an upcoming race to the first driver willing to go vegan for one month. Would you do it?

Yes I would. For a pit spot? No. 1? Absolutely.

Have you ever tried going vegan before?

No.

But you’re a healthy eater, I understand.

I am, yes. But I do eat a lot of protein — meat. But I’d do it because I’d like to try it anyway. And if you get Pit Out, it’s worth it.

6. It’s time for the Random Race Challenge. I’ve picked a random race from your career and you have to tell me where you finished. This is the 2014 race at Barber Motorsports Park. Do you remember this race at all?

(Thinks deeply) Did I win that one?

No, I didn’t want to make it too easy.

Yeah. OK. Let’s say fourth place and I was saving a lot of fuel.

You were fifth. I don’t know what the fuel situation was. But you led 15 laps and ultimately Ryan Hunter-Reay won.

I think that might have been that race.

Are you good at remembering races in general?

Not anymore. There’s just so many. Earlier in your career, you could remember every race you’ve done. Now it’s so hard to recall, I couldn’t even remember all my wins.

7. Who is the best rapper alive?

Alive? I’m into 90s rap, so Snoop Dogg, Dr. Dre. Tupac is obviously gone. Biggie is gone.

Definitely not Jay-Z.

Oh! Not a Jay-Z guy, huh?

Nah. I’m not a big Jay-Z guy. He’s not bad. But I listen to NWA and Public Enemy — No. 1.

I don’t know who it is, but I’d say Snoop Dogg. He’s kind of the guy who comes to mind now. There’s so many good 90s rappers, man. Pete Rock and CL Smooth. Tribe Called Quest.

8. Who has the most punchable face in IndyCar?

Most punchable face. That’s an interesting one. Who would I like most to punch in the head in IndyCar? I don’t know. Let’s go through the field. (Thinks for a moment.)

I don’t know that anyone has a punchable face. That would be very, very mean to punch someone in the face. It happens. I’ve punched people in the face and been punched in the face in my life, but it’s just not a good thing.

Let’s just pick a random person. No. There’s no one there who I’d like to punch in the face.

9. IndyCar enlists three famous Americans to be involved with your team for one race as part of a publicity push: Taylor Swift, LeBron James and Tom Hanks. Choose one to be your chief strategist, one to be your spotter and one to be your motorhome driver.

I’d have Tom Hanks on strategy. He’s probably a pretty cluey guy in that respect, having to learn lines and memorize well. (Editor’s note: “Cluey” is Australian slang for wise or knowledgeable.)

LeBron would be very good at spotting. He’s always looking to understand what’s going on on the court.

And Taylor Swift is always on a bus traveling, so she’d have some sort of idea of how a motorhome is run.

10. What is the key to finding the best pre-race bathroom?

Actually, I usually scope it out beforehand. The best ones are when it’s a port-o-potty right on pit lane there. Indianapolis is the worst, like the Indy road course. You have to go searching into a room and try to find one.

11. IndyCar decides they would like the highlight reel value brought by the former Carl Edwards backflips and want their own version. How much money would they have to offer for you to backflip off your car following your next win?

What, do they have an unlimited budget? You’d take big money, as much as you could go. A million bucks. You could make money off it if they said they’d give anything. Then you’d learn and do the backflip.

Or you don’t learn at all. What is it? If they say, “We’ll give you a million bucks if you backflip,” can you go off and learn? Or do you have to turn up without learning and they’ll say, “Bang?”

You can have time to learn.

OK. Well then the highest amount of money you can get. It’s business.

12. Each week, I ask a driver to give me a question for the next interview. Last week was with Daniel Suarez. His question for you was: How much do you enjoy road course racing versus oval racing, and would you like to try one of those in NASCAR one day?

I would love to try an oval in NASCAR. And a road course, actually. For me, I really enjoy oval racing a lot more than earlier in my career. It’s almost to the point where I’d much rather do ovals each week. But you’ve got to have both in IndyCar. They’re just such different disciplines for us. Really enjoy ovals though. Really, really enjoy understanding how to get the car working and where to run and running in traffic. It’s just a lot of fun.

Do you have a question I might be able to ask for the next interview? It’s with Rico Abreu, the sprint car driver.

Yeah, I think I would ask him: Would he like to try an IndyCar out on an oval or a road course? That would be interesting to see what he thought.

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The Top Five: Breaking down the Brickyard 400

Five thoughts after Monday’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway…

1. Keselowski a threat?

Ever since the “Big Three” entered the NASCAR lexicon in June, the obvious question has been: Which driver is the fourth? After all, having a four-man championship race requires more than just a Big Three.

Brad Keselowski won the Southern 500 last week, but just one race is nothing to get too excited about when it comes to championship contention. He hadn’t even won all year before Darlington.

But now Keselowski has won two in a row — and two of the biggest races of the season, at that — which makes him a lot harder to ignore entering the playoffs. When you combine Keselowski’s knack for managing the elimination system with his team’s ability to capitalize on opportunities like it has the last two weeks, that could be dangerous even for rivals who have more raw speed.

As we all know, the fastest car doesn’t always win in NASCAR — and the fastest four cars definitely don’t always make it to Homestead. Keselowski suddenly has the fourth-most playoff points (19), and I’d hate to be a driver having to beat him in a must-win situation.

Momentum is real in racing. So I’ve seen enough to pick Keselowski as my fourth playoff driver for Homestead (my complete predictions are in Item No. 5).

2. Unrestricted racing

This may very well have been the last unrestricted Brickyard 400 for the foreseeable future. So it’s fitting it ended with a classic, NASCAR-style finish.

On a restart with three laps to go, Clint Bowyer spun the tires and opened the door for Keselowski to challenge Denny Hamlin for the race lead. Despite Keselowski having fresher tires, he had to use every move in his driver bag of tricks to get by Hamlin as they were coming to the white flag.

What we saw were two drivers going all out and doing everything they could while operating at their peak talent level in order to win. It was the kind of moment that makes NASCAR so special.

But that’s likely going away soon. The All-Star aero package (or whatever your name for it is) was used in the Xfinity race earlier Monday, and you get the feeling most fans would say they preferred that racing over the Brickyard 400 itself.

NASCAR reportedly wants to run that package in up to 14 Cup races next year, and the Brickyard will certainly be one of them. And it works better here than other places.

At the same time, that is going to be tough to swallow. The idea of the Brickyard 400 — even with stages and competition cautions and the like — still has a purity. It’s the best stock car racers on the planet pushing themselves to the absolute limit and forcing their equipment to race on the edge of disaster. The best drivers often win the battle.

That might be the case in the future as well, but it will be more of a coincidence. Pack racing and drafting takes a different skill set, and it doesn’t take the same incredible talent to just run wide open around a 2.5-mile course.

So I’ll miss Cup races like today’s, even if it was boring at times compared to the Xfinity race. Because when it was all said and done, it felt more like real racing than what the future appears to hold.

3. One-day show for the win

Hey, did you notice NASCAR held two races without a single practice or qualifying lap on Monday — and had no problems whatsoever?

No one has dared to start a Cup race without some laps on the track since I can remember (2004 until now), although the weather has always allowed for some on-track activity before the race.

It turned out just fine, though. The drivers and engineers don’t need practice. They honestly don’t even need qualifying.

This proves NASCAR could easily do a one-day show if it wanted to. Show up to a track on a Wednesday night, give teams a 30-minute shakedown practice at 2 p.m., qualify at 4 p.m. and race at 7 p.m. It would be a great event and probably wouldn’t turn out any different if it was a three-day weekend with four hours of practice.

Officials should at least try it a couple times to see if it can work. After Indy, it seems like it would be an easy way to condense the season schedule without actually losing any races.

4. On the outside

As the playoffs begin, we bid farewell to the once-promising seasons of several drivers.

Jamie McMurray had made the playoffs for three straight seasons and everyone figured his consistency would get him back again this year. Instead, he finished the regular season ranked 21st in points and had news of his imminent departure from a full-time ride at Chip Ganassi Racing reported before Monday’s race.

Daniel Suarez, who finished the regular season 20th in the standings, was unable to capitalize on the great speed shown by Joe Gibbs Racing almost all season long. His three teammates made the playoffs while he did not. Meanwhile, reports have Truex replacing Suarez in what is currently the No. 19 car next season.

Then there’s Ryan Newman, who has made the playoffs seven times but was the first driver out this season. His future at Richard Childress Racing is in doubt as well.

Paul Menard couldn’t make the playoffs in his first season at Wood Brothers Racing, although Ryan Blaney did it in the same ride last year. And William Byron missed the playoffs in his rookie year as his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates all got through (albeit taking two of the last three spots).

5. Playoff predictions

I recorded a preseason playoff predictions podcast with Bubba Wallace in January. The results: I got 13 of the 16 drivers (I had Newman, McMurray and Byron instead of Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola) and Wallace got 12 correct (he had Newman, McMurray, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and himself instead of Almirola, Bowman, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer).

So I’m not exactly that great at predictions, but I’ll try again anyway for the playoffs.

In the first round, it will be Dillon, Bowman, Blaney and Jones getting eliminated.

In Round 2, Johnson’s shot at Championship No. 8 will end, along with Almirola, Kurt Busch and Logano.

When it gets down to the final eight drivers, it will be a shocking elimination for Truex, along with Bowyer, Hamlin and Larson.

Then it will come down to the final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Keselowski and Elliott — with Harvick winning his second title over Busch.

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Post-Brickyard 400 podcast with NASCAR playoff drivers

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Five NASCAR playoff drivers (Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin), along with @nascarcasm and Paige Keselowski, join me on the frontstretch at Indianapolis Motor Speedway to help break down the upcoming NASCAR playoffs.