DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Michigan

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Didn’t play last week.

Season results: $26 wagered, $17 won in 10 contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad single entry game.

Michigan picks:

Kyle Larson ($10,200). Taking the polesitter and the most expensive driver seems like a bad idea, but I’m counting on Larson to be the hammer and control the race. After all, he’s won the last two races at the big 2-mile tracks (Michigan and Fontana) and his confidence isn’t higher anywhere else.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000). Like Larson, not much of ceiling for a guy starting second. But I’m banking on Truex leading a lot of laps at some point during the race and having the points add up that way. Yes, there are fewer available laps to lead at Michigan than other tracks, but those points can still add up if a driver dominates (which has been the case at times in recent Michigan races).

Jamie McMurray ($8,200). This seems like a steal at the price, because the Chip Ganassi Racing cars are both looking quite strong at Michigan. McMurray qualified eighth, so there’s not a huge upside for positions differential — but he could still end up in the top three by the end.

Erik Jones ($8,000). I’ve picked Jones a lot this year, but it seems like another tempting opportunity this time. He qualified 14th with one of the best cars there, has extra motivation racing at his home track and is coming off his career-best finish last week at Pocono (third). All that adds up to a great bargain for the price.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500). For a moderate price, you get a rookie who has finished on the lead lap of six straight Cup races. Suarez takes care of his equipment, which is reason for optimism he can use a fast car to make some nice gains from his 20th starting position as Joe Gibbs Racing continues to show improvement.

Ty Dillon ($6,100). After having his qualifying time disallowed, Dillon starts 37th. Even if he only finishes in the 20s, that’s still a lot of positions to be gained.

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Dover

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played the $3 Beginner Slingshot game. Finished 18th out of 200; won $10.

Season results: $26 wagered, $17 won in 10 contests.

This week’s contest: $0 free game due to Delaware state law restriction.

Dover picks:

— Kyle Busch ($10,400). It’s always dangerous to take the polesitter, but there are a lot of available laps to lead at Dover — and I want the people who are going to hog most of them. That would seem to fit Busch, among others.

— Martin Truex Jr. ($9,900). I’m going with Truex as my hammer. Last fall, Truex led 187 of the 400 laps — and I could see him with a similar performance on Sunday. He starts second, so he’ll have a good shot to pile up the laps led early in the race.

— Joey Logano ($9,200). This is pretty much a “He’s starting 26th and I want the position differential” play. It’s been a rough weekend for Logano, who seems to be lacking speed. But that team is capable of rebounding quickly. Maybe it’s not worth the high price to take the risk, but we’ll see.

— Ryan Newman ($7,200). I took Newman for one reason: He was the best driver remaining I could afford. Yes, I picked Newman to plug a hole — choosing him over similarly-priced Paul Menard, Ty Dillon and Trevor Bayne. There aren’t a lot of stats to back this up, other than Newman was faster than those drivers in practice. But this allowed me to take drivers like Busch, Logano and Truex — so that makes it worth it.

— Daniel Suarez ($7,100). I’m going with a value play here for a couple reasons. First, the Toyotas look fast this weekend — and this is a way to get one for cheap. Second, Suarez was 12th-fastest in 10-lap averages — so he clearly has a fast car. The downside (and a big one, perhaps) is he starts third.

— AJ Allmendinger ($6,200). A good value for a driver who was 14th in 10-lap average for final practice. Allmendinger starts 24th, but has been strong here in the past (he’s led more laps at Dover than he has at any other track).

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Coca-Cola 600

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: No race last week.

Season results: $23 wagered, $7 won in nine contests.

This week’s contest: $3 Beginner Slingshot contest.

Coke 600 picks:

— Martin Truex Jr. ($10,700). I have no expectations he can repeat last year’s performance — where he led the most miles in NASCAR history — but he often seems to find the front on 1.5-mile tracks. Maybe he can lead a bunch of laps again; if so, I want to capitalize on his hammer potential.

— Kyle Larson ($10,100). He didn’t make it through tech inspection in time to qualify, so Larson will start 39th. Take the position differential he’s sure to get, even if everyone else has him on their teams, too.

— Jamie McMurray ($8,400). McMurray was fastest in 10-lap average for final practice and starts 11th. That’s a pretty good value for a driver who could get a top-five, and you know those Chip Ganassi cars will be strong all race.

Austin Dillon ($7,600). He now has a new crew chief, so maybe that will mark a fresh start for the No. 3 team. But Dillon also starts 22nd and had the 12th-fastest 10-lap average in final practice, offering a good chance to move up during the race.

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500). I really wanted to pick Kasey Kahne here, but I didn’t have enough money (I was $400 short). So I’ll just take a chance and ride with Stenhouse and the Roush resurgence, although he wasn’t overly impressive in final practice (19th-fastest single lap, 16th-fastest 10-lap average) and starts 13th.

— Regan Smith ($5,600). An excellent value play here with Aric Almirola’s substitute. He’s cheaper than JJ Yeley and Matt DiBenedetto, but you could easily get a top-20 finish out of Smith (who starts 25th). The downside: The No. 43 car didn’t look very good in practice (second-slowest of the 25 cars who tried 10-lap runs in final practice).

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Kansas Speedway

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Was unable to play for Talladega due to Alabama state laws. Would have won $50,000 if my lineup had been entered (I’m kidding).

Season results: $19 wagered, $7 won in eight contests.

This week’s contest: $4 Brake Pad game with a single entry allowed.

Kansas picks:

Kevin Harvick ($10,400). It seems like Harvick has a typically great intermediate track car (he was second in 10-lap averages for final practice). Even though he starts eighth, Harvick could be the hammer for much of the race if he gets track position. I’m counting on it.

Jimmie Johnson ($10,100). He’s coming from the back (well, 29th) after failing to make a qualifying lap and has won at Kansas three times. Oh, and he was fastest among the 20 drivers who did 10-lap runs in final practice.

— Clint Bowyer ($8,600). Again, I’m going with one of the drivers who didn’t make a qualifying lap and thus has to start 30th. Pretty sure he’s going to be moving up quickly through the field, and I love the positions differential opportunity.

Kasey Kahne ($7,800). Are you sensing a theme here? Good bargain for a guy who has huge upside with his points differential after failing to post a qualifying lap (he starts 31st).

Erik Jones ($7,700). I’ve picked Jones a lot this year, with mixed results. But he usually ends up running well — luck aside — and he’s too temping to pass up again after starting 32nd.

Landon Cassill ($5,200). I only had $5,400 left after picking all those other guys, so it was either Cassill or his teammate David Ragan. And both of them — you guessed it — start in the back after not posting a qualifying lap. I picked Ragan last week, so I guess I’ll go with Cassill this week.

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Talladega Superspeedway

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played the $4 single-entry Brake Pad contest. Finished 930th out of 2,400 and won $0.

Season results: $19 wagered, $7 won in eight contests.

This week’s contest: Not allowed to participate based on Alabama state law. Lame.

Talladega picks:

Joey Logano ($10,700). It’s putting me in a tough position to take the two most expensive drivers, but that’s what I plan to do. Both are extremely good at the draft, and think they’re both able to dominate the race if they get the chance. It doesn’t hurt that Logano starts 12th, either.

Brad Keselowski ($10,500). I’m thinking he could be my hammer, if there is such a thing at a plate race. I envision Keselowski getting the lead early and controlling a large part of the race — if he has his way — and those laps led could come in handy in DraftKings.

Kurt Busch ($8,000). The Daytona 500 winner always seems to be in the mix at Talladega. Busch hasn’t finished lower than 12th in his last five ‘Dega starts, scoring the most points of any driver in those races. He’ll have plenty of friends to draft with on Sunday.

— Ryan Newman ($7,400). For a guy known for hating plate racing, Newman is very solid here. He has the fourth-most points of any driver in the last six Talladega races. Plus, he starts 20th.

Elliott Sadler ($6,700). I wrestled with picking Paul Menard here ($7,300), but Menard’s good starting spot pushed me away. Meanwhile, Sadler starts 35th, and I’m hoping he can do something similar to the Daytona 500 — when he went from 40th to 20th for Tommy Baldwin Racing.

David Ragan ($6,000). I had to decide between Ragan and Front Row Motorsports teammate Landon Cassill, and I left it up to whoever was starting further back in the field. The answer: Ragan, who starts 29th. He knows what he’s doing here.

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks: Richmond

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played the $3 Hot Rod game with a three entry max. Finished 600th out of 7,800 and won $7.

Season results: $15 wagered, $7 won in eight contests.

This week’s contest: $4 entry Brake Pad game with only one entry per player allowed.

Richmond picks:

Kyle Busch ($10,600). He’s the most expensive at Richmond for a reason. Busch leads all active drivers in wins (four), top fives (15, including six second-place finishes) and average finish (7.0, more than three positions better than the next-closest driver).

— Denny Hamlin ($9,300). The hometown favorite won last fall’s Richmond race from the pole and has an average finish of 10.1 — second among active drivers. In addition, he was second-fastest for 10-lap averages in final practice.

— Matt Kenseth ($8,800). I’m making a big bet on the Toyotas this weekend, as you can tell. But he starts from the pole, and I’m really looking for a driver who can lead laps (which is so key on short tracks). Since moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, Kenseth has six top-10 finishes in eight races here. He was fourth-fastest in 10-lap averages in final practice.

— Erik Jones ($8,100). As long as he’s relatively cheap, I’m going to keep picking him every week. In Saturday’s first practice, he was fastest in both single-lap and 10-lap average, although he dropped to 14th in best 10-lap average.

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000). So cheap for how well he might run. Worth taking a chance on, especially because he was seventh in 10-lap averages for final practice.

— Aric Almirola ($6,200). If this pick works, it’s just going to purely be dumb luck. Almirola was the top driver left with the unused salary cap money (I ended up using all of it) since I spent so much on the Toyota drivers. He was 20th in both 10-lap average and single lap for final practice.

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR picks for Bristol

I’m playing DraftKings this season and will be posting my picks here each week. Disclosure: If you want to play and sign up using this link, DraftKings will give my website a commission. Disclosure No. 2: I might be America’s worst daily fantasy player.

Last race’s results: Played the $4 Chrome Horn game. Finished out of the money.

Season results: $12 wagered, $0 won in seven contests.

This week’s contest: $3 entry Hot Rod game with $20,000 total payout.

Bristol picks:

Kyle Larson ($10,100). I need drivers who are capable of leading a lot of laps, and I envision Larson leading the first 50 — at least — after starting on the pole.

Matt Kenseth ($9,100). He’s so consistent and will be able to adapt to changing conditions with success. He won’t lead many laps after starting 22nd, but I could see him having some success later in the race.

Clint Bowyer ($8,400). He was competitive in the past here even when his cars weren’t, and he was second-fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice.

Erik Jones ($7,800). Even though he made his best laps this weekend on the bottom lane, he clearly has a fast car in general (as do all the Toyotas). He was also fifth-fastest in final practice for 10-lap averages.

Kasey Kahne ($7,600). Pretty great value for a guy who was fastest in 10-lap averages for final practice. Plus, he had the third-fastest single lap speed.

Daniel Suarez ($7,000). It seems like this place suits him, and I like the extra laps he got from the Xfinity race. He might not lead laps, but if he can get a top-10 and get points differential from starting 23rd, that could be a good value.